Political scientist Helmut Norpoth fields media calls every week seeking comment on the upcoming presidential election. Why the interest? In 2016, he was one of a handful of experts who correctly predicted the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election.
Norpoth, a professor in Stony Brook’s Department of Political Science, has enjoyed notable success forecasting elections based on his Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data going back more than a century.
In 2020, his model once again projects a Trump victory, giving the incumbent President a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide — a controversial call that runs contrary to current polls.
The Primary Model has correctly predicted five of the past six presidential elections, and when applied to previous elections, correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27, missing only the 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon — two extremely close and contested votes marred by allegations of voting inaccuracies.
Norpoth began working on his model after the 1992 presidential election, putting it to the test for the first time in 1996.
“My first forecast was the 1996 election, the one where Bill Clinton was re-elected for a second term,” he said. “Predicting a Clinton win was considered a stretch at the time because he was pretty bad in his first term.”
Norpoth, who has been at Stony Brook since 1979, correctly predicted Clinton’s win using a very simple early version of his model. He would expand the model in the years to come, an ongoing evolution that continues to this day. But one key metric that was apparent to Norpoth even in the early stages — the importance of early presidential primaries — remains a critical part of the Primary Model.
After the 2008 election, in which Barack Obama won the nomination and then the election despite failing to win the New Hampshire primary, Norpoth expanded the range of primaries to include the South Carolina primary as well.
“But that’s it,” said Norpoth. “I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests. It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”
He described the focus on primaries as the key difference between his model and others.
“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” he said. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”
Unlike many other projections, Norpoth’s equation ignores approval ratings.
“That’s a poll number,” he said, “and I don’t use those. I think the primary performance of a sitting president is usually a proxy for that. But I don’t use any polling data or data related to opinions.”
In light of this information, Norpoth said he wasn’t surprised that his model gave Trump a very strong chance at a second term.
“When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes, and the closest challenger was Bill Weld at 10 percent, I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict,” he said. “If Trump had gotten only 55 percent and an opponent had gotten 40 percent, I may not have predicted that Donald Trump would have a chance to win. Maybe. It would depend on the other side as well.”
As for the Democrats, Norpoth said that the sheer number of candidates and the inability of any one of them to get off to a fast start may have doomed the party from the start.
“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” said Norpoth. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”
So was there anything any of the Democrats could have done this year to get in a better position, or was it Donald Trump’s election to win or lose?
“What the Democrats should have done if they were really serious about beating Trump would have been to rally around one candidate right from the start and not have a protracted battle in which people get wounded,” Norpoth said. “They needed to pick one person and have everybody else take a pass. That’s the only way I could see that my model would have worked in their favor.”
Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.
“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”
Norpoth also scoffed when asked to comment on the argument that the Trump presidency has been widely described as being “unlike any previous presidency.”
“Every president is unique, and I think people get a little carried away with that description,” he said. “Obama was the first Black president. Is that not unique? If Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, she would have been the first woman president. Is that not unique? I grant that Trump is in many ways a very special kind of character, but I think we also tend to exaggerate that.”
One model change Norpoth has made for the upcoming election has been to focus on the Electoral College.
“Now I predict straight to the Electoral College,” he said. “I’ve never done that before, but I made an adjustment because of the mismatch we had in 2016, and I’m prepared to see Trump lose the popular vote again. So this prediction is entirely about the electoral votes.”
Norpoth said that while he manages not to get emotionally connected to these projections, the reactions to his projections sometimes do take an emotional toll.
“I get a lot of reactions, and I get a lot of mail,” he said. “Some of the comments are unprintable. I do get backlash, and I get it from people whose opinions I value, people who are friends. And I can tell that some people find it difficult. So there is an emotional part that goes on.”
But at the core, said Norpoth, it’s just math.
“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” he concluded. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”
Twenty-five of the last 27 U.S presidential elections can vouch for that.
— Robert Emproto
Norpoth is ignoring so many facts; trumps unpopularity, response to the corona virus, social unrest and defections by Republican lawmakers and and his shrinking base. trump won by slim margins in critical states and those margins are gone. His last strength was the economy and very few predict that will recover by November.
Exactly!
To not factor in anything that has taken place since the South Carolina primary is crazy. So many major issues have occurred since March 2020 that have changed the political landscape considerably.
Yes, thanks to Demoncrats creating these problems for him…cheats! The economy is already recovering! He WILL win and he is a great President, regardless of what liberals think. He has done more for this country than any recent President in my lifetime. Start giving a little credit. He’s no perfect man, but then WHO is?
What specifically has Trump done?
https://frankreport.com/2020/04/18/one-hundred-twenty-five-amazing-accomplishments-of-president-donald-j-trump/
Here you go, so sad that you should even have to ask this question, he has done more for the military (and please, don’t say you believe he made those awful comments given by yet another Mr. Anonymous – but if you do, please do your own research on the more than 12 actual witnesses who were there and said that was NEVER said, from President Trump, a man who adores and fights for the military, I mean really?? The Left will believe anything if it is negative for Trump! He’s done more for world peace, only President serving a term without a war, more for opportunities for blacks, the list above of 125 accomplishments is there for all to read, but the mainstream media never talks about any of these, so you are just kept in the dark, not your fault, theirs. Wake up America, you are being lied to. do your own research, all the “fact checkers” are only seeing what they are allowed to see, the truth is often buried to the bottom of internet searches. But at least you asked the question Bobby, good for you.
Brought peace to the Middle East? Record unemployment record job growth? I could go on.
Good question. I went through the “frankreport” list of “125 amazing accomplishments of Trump” one-by-one. Here is MY score of that list:
Trump gets credit or partial credit for 16 of them that might have a positive impact. At least 5 of them are simply repeats of previous items — and none could be considered positive accomplishments. A dozen of them are true “anti-accomplishments” that no decent human being would consider positive in any way. Many are trivial speculations about impact, of dubious value, or whose impact is yet to be determined. Two of them are just plain idiotic (the Space Force and funding for the The Wall), and the rest are just “signature-only actions” — the result of other’s hard work to get them passed through Congress.
So, if this is the best Trump’s apologists can do, he actually IS in the running for “Worst President Ever In The History Of Presidents”
Almost 4 million jobs created since election.
More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since my election.
Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
Under my Administration, veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
Retail sales surged last month, up another 6 percent over last year.
Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
As a result of our tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
Record number of regulations eliminated.
Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
Obamacare individual mandate provided more affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans.
Last month, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. And thanks to our efforts, many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases.
reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars this year alone.
Signed Right-To-Try legislation.
Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
Hasreduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during my first year in office.
Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord.
Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan.
Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces.
Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court.
Issued Executive Order to keep open Guantanamo Bay.
Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak.
Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect our national security.
Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices.
Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year.
Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement.began BUILDING THE WALL. Republicans want STRONG BORDERS and NO CRIME. Democrats want OPEN BORDERS which equals MASSIVE CRIME.
Stop watching the fake news and youul be unenlightened. You are whats referred to as a low informavoter.
as with other presidents, the laws signed have to be analyzed. huge task to evaluste presidents.
Turned the country into a stinking cesspool of division, protests and violent crime. Not to mention bringing white supremacy back like it’s 1955.
Not get into a war…. 1st time in over 40 years
Record low unemployment rates. Created areas of opportunity to bolster and ensure successes in black communities. Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which got him a Nobel peace prize nomination. He is building the wall that he promised in order to secure our borders. Need more than that? And his opposition’s main criticism is that he’s a racist, though nobody can give a clear example of this.
HE negotiated a peace deal in the MID EAST that no other President was able to do. Since Carter not one President could do this. Kerry… ” it will never happen” !!!
The price of gasoline has gone down and remains low, although it’s not past on the consumer at the grocery store. Gasoline price’s alone contribute tremendously to everyone rich or poor and can’t be lied about!
Sergio are you so blind as to ignore the accomplishment this president has made, lower unemployment, jobs back from overseas, lower taxes,fought off the communist democrat lies about russia collusion, brought troops home and more. Wake up and stop drinking the kool aid.
?? Yep! Trump 2020 ??❤️??❤️??
buddy, democrats didnt create any problem for him, he has not done anything for the country, and he deserves credit for nothing.
You think Donald Trump is behind in the Polls my friend just look at the crowds he has vs Biden 10`s of thousands stand in line just to get glimpse of him some camp out. of course the fake medi, Cnn, Msnbc, Nbc, Cbs, Abc and others will not show the crowds. next time g to FOX They wil show it and they cant make it up.. Now there is the real way to tell the correct poll numbers even in the swing states.vv
For the popular vote that is all correct. However, he says he fully expects he will lose the popular vote again yet win the electoral college – again. Each vote does not really count does it?
Note- he didn’t say that he’s a fan. He said that this model indicates a high probability that Trump will win.
Anecdotally, if you were correct in all of Trump’s failures, we would see reduced enthusiasm for Trump, see Anti-Trump protests and increased energy behind Biden. Trump would not be able to travel without protest and Biden would have overflowing crowds and screaming fans.
You must be one of them liberals instead of the people that really see the facts and what’s really happening and going on. The American people are not stupid and just see one side, we really look at the full picture. If the left would of waited and started all this a few months later then I would of gave it to you but we see what’s really happening now.
Keeping your head in the sand keeps you from seeing the writing on the wall. Trump is not a nice man, and can only lead effectively it everything is running smoothly. He had done a terrible job even before the pandemic. He pulled the US out the Paris Climate Agreement, put oil men to head the EPA, put a Verizon executive to head the FCC, and a pro logger to head the Interior Dependent. Europe hates us, and now won’t allow us to travel there because of how poorly Trump has handled the virus. The constitution can’t survive another 4 years of Trump.
You realize pulling out of that Paris agreement and pretty much everything else he has done was correct
Yes, I believe he was correct in all those matters. Trump is a very sharp man. He’sdone a fine job. Best since Rheagan.
That was a large mistake. I can explain it to you in detail, but you don’t want to debate the facts. If you do… let me know when!
That’s laughable! Everything he touches crumbles into chaos.
Trump has been right on a lot of issues, especially putting America first and supporting our law enforcement along with protecting the unborn. Biden can’t even formulate a cognitive sentence.
Purely your opinion!
Trump is not a nice man but the DNC is nice? Talk about head in the sand
You igit…we wanted out of the Paris agreement..and the fact that you dont understand that the Paris agreement was to strangle us while china expqnded… then you dont need to add your ignorant input
YOu mistake Turmps actions as doing a bad job, but most Americans applaud his work. We are happy he pulled us out of the Paris Climate Agreement, Put an oilman in charge of the EPA and other countries don’t step on us any more. So, Trump did as he said he would and thats why a landslide is imminent. See you in 4 years.
You must be younger never seen 1970’s pollution before the EPA. I remember breathing air in CA so smoggy it made lungs burn and eyes sting. There was a time when no one cared about the environment. Black smoke poured from giant industrial cities. You never been to City of Industry in SOCAL entire city of heavy industry. Think of that 1970’s with black smoke pouring out. CA used to be worst smoggy state with no rules.
Other countries don’t step on you? All the usa has done for decades is step on and intimidate other countries. Trump has just ramped that up to the point where even the usa’s closest allies are distancing themselves, and the rest of the world is diplomatically and economically shunning the usa in response to its hostility and selfishness (the Paris Agreement is the perfect example of that: almost every single country in the world has agreed, in the spirit of cooperation, kindness and global solidarity. Only the North Korea and usa decided to be selfish and refused to help).
Isn’t it amazing how so many say that the president is spreading hate, and they themselves are the ones who are the “Haters”? If the Dems get control, and eventually they possibly could, this country will go to a place that will bankrupt the entire planet, by allowing other countries to walk all over whats left of the people here. The Dems in office will however survice unscathed , but We, the people will suffer the losses of everything we take advantage of today.
Last time I did math, less than a 50% approval rating means less than most. But who am I to question the wisdom of the Alternative Facts party? LOL
What does being a “nice man” have to do with running the most amazing country in the world?
I just can’t get over the fact that the dems gave the wheel to Joe Biden. The man has problems trying to finish a sentence, let alone a Presidential Race. What if he did win? Who would really run this Nation? Joe won’t get it done and Nice has Nothing to do with running this Nation.
“Trump is not a nice man”
That will LITERALLY never matter to me and many others. We didn’t elect him to be our best friend. I’d never want to go out for a beer with the man. We elected him to run this country the way he said he would and he has done just that. I can’t remember the last time a president has adhered so closely to promises made during their campaign.
Nice reply Hunter, I’m a cuban for trump and that’s right a Hispanic, proud to be in this country and proud of the job our president has done. (Note to all you libs asking for socialism try before you buy move to Cuba and you’ll find out why they are all floating over here in whatever they can find.)
Don’t worry yourself, the U.S. Constitution is going to do just fine.
And I am supposed to care about what Europe thinks about us? They hate us – so what!
They would all be wearing black boots high stepping if it wasn’t for the United States.
My goodness Andy
The Paris climate agreement is nothing more than wealth redistribution form America to other poor countries. If the climate was so seriously in danger why did the scientists from the East Anglia study need to falsify the data to make it look bad. Climate does change. We have warmer years, we have cooler years. The earth does not rotate in a perfect axis so at times we are closer to the sun than others.
Hey how about President putting people in jobs that have real world experience, unlike BHO who put in academics and no real life experience other than theory and wanting to live in a utopian world. Yes All countries are concerned about the CHINA VIRUS and not wanting people traveling to and from at this point in time America included. Why did China ban travel within their own country but let people travel around the world spreading this virus? Why did China buy up billions of masks, gloves and other equipment before the world realized what was happening and then selling it to countries at huge mark ups? President Trump is not a likeable person we can agree on that but wake up, he is going to save America from what would have been a disaster if HRC was elected. U.S. Grant was not a likeable person but Abe Lincoln knew he would get the job done, Patton was not a likeable person but Eisenhower knew he would get the job done. Yes there was an Obama lovefest and he told people he was going to heal the country, stop the rise of the ocean and bring in hope and change all lies and he created more hate and division causing more racial tension than ever. Obama is why we are seeing the riots and looting today because he wants a one world order where he would like to be considered the grand poobah. Well it aint going to happen because Americans that’s black,red,brown & white are too smart and sick of the BS going on.
Please take a breath and realise you too are rewarded for living in the greatest country in the world. If you don’t like it, please leave no one will stop you. As for the ignorant athletes that are ruining all sports good luck with that as more than 50% are not going to watch anymore IMHO they need to put President Trumps picture on the scoreboard and announce… Please Stand For Your National Anthem or kneel Before Your President!!! God Bless America and God Bless President Trump
Well said!
May God continue blessing America with Donald Trump as President.
Exactly.
As anyone actually paying attention to Trump’s every word, action, and tweet as well as his actions prior to winning the 2016 election would, if they had an ounce of intelligence, deduce that the man is unbalanced, borderline illiterate, without merit of any kind, immoral, dishonest, in all of his actions, incapable of speaking truthfully, greedy beyond belief, hypocritical beyond comprehension and reason, vain to the core, entirely self serving, egomaniacal in all that he does, a draft dodger….one that considers military personal that gave their life for their country to be looser’s and sucker’s, a manipulator, and an absolute disgrace to our nation, a cheater that has used bankruptcy filings numerous times to escape paying debts that to date exceed many millions of dollars, maintains odd and relationships with many of the world’s most dangerous and corrupt dictators. With these facts digested and understood it should be very clear that this most flawed fool’s base supporters are fools themselves. Of course they have every right to show their ignorance to the world; this is, as they they see it, their right to express their opinions and beliefs……even if doing so might very well, in the end, destroy the very country they, inconceivably, believe they are saving with their foolishness , ignorance, misguided actions, prejudices. We should, all of us, be working hard to prove Helmut Norpoth got it wrong this time; that Trump’s deaf, dumb, and blind supporters, just as their idol does, have their heads imbedded all the way up their own anus’s. It is possible, but doubtful, that they might be able to extract their heads in time to get to the polls or the post office on November and vote to put some sense, reason, honesty, empathy, sincerity, truth, common sense, compassion, good will, compassion, back into our lives. We’ve all now seen the damage we’ve done to ourselves by allowing this absolutely unqualified and totally self interested morally corrupt lowlife into our White House
Trump has done everything he said he would do for us Americans, can’t believe someone would vote for Biden when in 47 years has done nothing for anyone but himself
Everything you said is a matter of opinion and not fact. Let me leave you with this, 47 years in public office and has never done anything but make racist remarks, back racist and oppressive legislation, and eulogize and admire a known member of the KKK. What is Mr. Biden going to do if he were to get elected that he didn’t already have an opportunity to do in 47 years? The only argument that Democrats and democratic voters have and use as Drive to remove president Trump, is that he’s bad Democrats good. There’s no real substance to the argument other than fake allegations against President Trump.
Not a nice man? Are you so naïve as to believe any of them are nice? One cannot be “nice” and run the most powerful country in the world Good grief. We do not need the Paris Accord to tell US what to do. BTW: Obama put a CEO from Monsanto in hi cabinet. How do you feel about that? The King of GMO’s!
As soon as Covid19 hit, he took action and even our scoundrel of a governor here in CA (and the one in NYC) were singing his praises.
You do realize that we think pulling out of the PCA is one of his greatest achievements!
Lol. Exactly what we should be doing, putting industry experts at the head of these groups. And pulling out of liberal bias world organizations thank God for that!
The world is a very tough place. I’ll take a tough man over a “nice” man any day. It’s far better to be feared than respected, whatever that even means??
No he didn’t say Trump would win the popular vote. People couldn’t have foreseen what would later happen with the presidential nominees when they voted in some of their Republican representatives. Even conservatives couldn’t have all foreseen a Trump coming (classification of his own) when those far right leaning states voted the Reps in. He didn’t win by popular vote the fist time either. So an unbalanced electoral system cannot account for the statement that Dems are clueless and Reps have it in stone. This country was built on both and the true dream was designed to be a balance of both. Even many conservatives (myself included) were and are not wild about Trump being in office and will vote according to that, though historically it is unlikely to unseat a sitting president and it won’t be shocking if history repeats. A person doesn’t have to be a liberal to see that the common American does not approve of Trump. If that were so his approval rating would be higher and he would win popular vote.
If you went by Trumps approval rating prior to his first term he should never have been President. It is also incorrect to state that most Americans don’t like him or don’t support him or won’t vote for him. Most Americans who do support Donald Trump are afraid to openly say so for fear of unjust and biased attacks from the left; and that’s the truth.
that is so true…..my husband is a Trump hater and i cannot even mention his name.
You’re right Patti, there is the silent majority and many moderate democrats have now woken up to the radical Left agenda.
I have never encountered any Trump supporter who is afraid to say what they think about him or anything else. The suggestion that the are a silent majority is b.s. Trump supporters are an extremely loud, vocal, and obnoxious minority.
Agreed. Things change when you step into the voting booth.
Amen to that. The left attacks people for their support of the President & consequently, many are silent, even to other conservatives. I guess they would like to see the 1st amd apply only to themselves.
You are 100% correct, Patti.
Correctly put… I am from India and its the same feeling which people had for Modi before 2014.. People were afraid to speak lest the other side literally banishes them… So they spoke through their vot
I find it’s the opposite. I rarely see Biden bumper stickers and often see M.A.G.A. hats. I work with a lot of Trump supporters and they’re always the ones projecting their politics around the warehouse and break room. Just because you’re the loudest doesn’t mean you’re right.
It should not be that way. People should not be afraid, but is what Trump has created, a negative environment with his rethoric.
I agree with you 100% and yes there is a huge silent majority. The people of tired of the BS coming from the left. I know of a lot of Trump supports that are being silent until election day. If Biden wins were doomed!!!!
You are nuts people love Trump. America was also founded on Judeo Christian values not communist liberal ones. Get a clue.
Kayla not must not be educated enough to understand the terms Christian ,communist, and liberal if you think Biden and Harris will be better for our country. The Lord above will ensure President Trump’s re election. Doesn’t really matter what you think, President Trump will be re elected, by a substantial margin
I think your lack of punctuation makes it sound like people are nuts if they love Trump. Lol I caught your meaning though.
Really? I love him too, but you obviously don’t live in California. All of Trump’s supporters are afraid our cars will be keyed, homes vandalized, etc. Because if you put out a Trump sign, bad things happen. People can put out a Biden sign, fine. But a Trump sign? Not advisable. Just vote. And I do vote too, all the time, even though in my state my vote counts for diddly.
That is exactly what people do not understand. Trump was not elected because we liked him. We put him there to do what he is doing! And, we are not finished yet! He has gotten a great start; 4 more yrs will only help the cause! Clean up Washington of Swamp sludge!
there’s nothing “unbalanced” about the electoral college. It functions EXACTLY as it was intended, and prevents urban areas from tyrannizing the rest of the country.
Exactly. It ensures the smaller communities have a vote equal to the higher populated areas. We don’t all think alike and the electoral college gives the little voices a say.
Since when did approval ratings count as votes?
I don’t think they can read because he very clearly and concisely explained why he doesn’t consider anything but hard solid factual numbers. Trump isn’t the only president that is included in this man’s model who was dealing with crises both at the national and international levels. FDR was dealing with WW2 on the heals of the great depression and WW1 and he managed to get re-elected 2 more times for a total of 4 terms, 3 full terms and 89 days into the 4th at which time vice-president Truman became president and after dropping 2 nukes on Japan was elected to a second term but chose not to run for a 3rd. It’s irrelevant to this guy’s model. Trump is very popular. Just because we’re not yelling and screaming and spewing hateful insanity all over the internet doesn’t mean we’re not here. I’ve always heard to watch out for the quiet ones. The reason the rest of the world sees us as clowns is because of the radical fringe who apparently don’t know the definition of “peaceful” as demonstrated by their “peaceful protesting” and the media is lapping it up like dogs drinking their masters’ blood after biting his throat to which they twist the facts even moreso in some kind of rodeo clown show giving the illusion to the rest of the world that we’re unstable. Watch out for the quiet ones!
FDR handled the situation well tho, Right? Where as Trump and the republicans are floundering in response to the crises. Also, this administration has admitted to ACTIVELY trying to suppress people’s votes. I think the broader issue is our democracy is under threat and it seems like so many are choosing to ignore it because they think party is more important than protecting the rights of every American citizen. Had Obama been pulling any of this crap, I would’ve voted him out in a heartbeat. Party loyalty does not supersede ones responsibility to protect our democracy.
Go to twitter,Facebook, watch CNN and see who is suppressing who?
FDR did not handle it well. Revisionist history at its best.
Yes I agree the difference between trump supporters and those of us who voted for Obama. If Obama had made it his mission to make America stand alone and disrespect our allies I would never have voted for him.
Also have to say since when is New Hampshire a deciding vote in a presidential election.
You clearly forgot Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and South Carolina all of which Joe Biden won against Bernie ( trump didn’t have A strong opponent to fight against especially Bernie Sanders supporters)
So non of that has been taken in to consideration and I believe we have God on our side, against an adulterous, narcissistic, racist who thinks only of himself. Has neglected to take control of a virus for who knows what reason. He just sat back and watched, played golf and rallied his base while people and families were suffering.
On top of that he’s forgotten the Parkland School kids who are now of voting age who will most certainly with their friends vote against Trump b/c he never helped against the gun control they were seeking after seeing many of their friends killed.
On top of that the death of black men, women and children by cops that were never addressed by trump. He went on golfing and did photo shoots in front of a Church holding an upside Bible( A book his own family say he’s never read) just for a photo shoot.
So go on and make your prediction I believe it will be Joe Biden/Kamala Harris landslide and we can finally wave goodbye to trump and all his enablers.
I totally agree! What good are the parties if the constitution is destroyed in the process of clinging to false hope for the parties sake?
i have to chuckle at people who say Trump mishandled this virus.
Biden and dems called him a xenophobe and fear mongerer for closing borders Feb 2nd- they continued to say that until April.. do you know how bad it would have gotten if we had Biden and waited till April to close borders?
we have a lower than world average death rate- Canada is double ours basically.
Trump advised very early what the cdc guidelines were – to wear a mask and socially distance. In NYC you had many who just didn’t follow this for a while while we upstate did… we barely had infections while NYC was out of control.
In a worldwide pandemic – of proportion that most of us hasn’t ever seen before – I feel safer with Trump being proactive than Biden’s record of being reactive.
Come on now, you have to be joking right? “Admitting to suppressing voters”? Trump has legitimate concerns seeing that 250,000 mail in ballots didn’t get counted in 2016 due to conflicts with fake names, false signatures and other oddities. I’m taking my mail in ballot to the voting office, handing it to them and voting at the booth.
We absolutely do not live in a democracy !!
No where in the Constitution is the word democracy. The United States ofAmerica is a Republic with a democratically elected government officials.
Get your facts straight.
Which when forming the constitution with the amendments a proposed amendment was to have term limits. Which they could not agree on.
So when Trump abandons our allies (Canada, Mexico, Germany) and cozies up with Putin; unemployment is +10%; virtually everyone who has worked with him has been indicted, convicted, or plead guilty; he doesn’t understand the 3 branches of government or the sanctity of the office, using it to enrich his friends (Goya Food, Mr Pillow) or to destroy a company for not allowing MAGA hats (Goodyear), does this not concern people?!! Our Democracy is being threatened.
Well put.
Not
You’re soooo right!! The left wingnut liberals just don’t get it; barnyard politics—the pigs always will support the farmer for feeding them not realizing that the farmer is the same one who will slaughter them; I didn’t vote for Trump b/c he’s necessarily a nice man I want to hang out with—he’s simply doing the tough job that’s required; we peacefully protest in our own way with the lake and ocean flotillas whereas the left have very violent protesting and looting and killing/destruction…that IS what the Dems have become. And I’m so happy that soooo many African-Americans men and women are changing to the GOP as they realize finally that the Dems have brainwashed them. Have you ever seen the very hard to find video audio clip of LBJ of what he had to say about AA’s when they got the right to vote? It’s disgusting!!! Go look for it!!! That’s the Democratic Party!!! I truly believe Trump is doing the best he can with the virus. It’s easy to say what you would do in hindsight. No one knows the right answer and if you do then YOU should be renamed Jesus b/c this is uncharted territory. Even FDR wasn’t perfect—hell, Pearl Harbor never should’ve happened…FDR and his military men dropped the ball entirely. You don’t have to love Trump—bur rwspect him for tackling multiple major issues better than anyone I can think of. Remember, most Republicans do not answer polls so be careful.
And Clinton was dealing with Monica Lewinsky
Right/Wrong track has predicted all elections since 1928. If right track is low it is time for change. If the wrong track is 60 or more the incumbent party is in trouble. The wrong track in multiple polls is between 70-80%. It will be a change election. Biden will win and nothing can change this.
It will be a Trump landslide. BLM has already decided it for a large majority. Do voters want a Northern Ireland situation and drift to civil war; Marxism and anarchy, or do they want law and order? As I say, a Trump landslide.
Read the article…. polls don’t matter. It is math.
I was a life long democrat who left the party and turned independent after 2016. I also live in NYC. What is happening here is indescribable- a total collapse. Once the economic powerhouse of the world, it has been left to violence and shambles. It is downright dangerous. The result of destructive democratic leadership, excessive regulations that increase every day and a crusade against our beloved NYPD. I am so grateful the New York City Police Benevolent Association gave an unprecedented endorsement of Trump; that is how serious this is. I have NEVER vocalized my support for Trump in this deep blue city; I am one of the silent ones. I even think Trump may have a chance at flipping NY state red. Bottom line- if I switched to Trump, I know there are A LOT more of us out there.
Trump winning New York State? Hahahahaha! ?
Another life-long Democrat who looked around, saw the Marxist writing on the wall, and voted for Trump in 2016 ….. and I’ll be voting for him again in Nov. it’s not a 2-party system any more. It’s now true patriots trying to save our Nation & Constitution from Socialism.
What does the NYPD do that you like so much? Can you cite some information, because there’s a lot of factual evidence that indicates that they probably don’t need to be continually taking money away from other city programs… What about Stop-and-Frisk, did you like that?
Once again a liberal who refuses to think or check facts before he speaks . Do you think the police do these things on there own . They were instructed to do that from a democrat mayor fact is every complaint you have can be traced back to a liberal democrat official. And just think how many lives were lost when governor cuomo put all the elderly COVID patients back in the nursing homes to die and infect and kill innocent others when trump gave him medical tents that he requested. Then the democrats add to the lies that trump killed all these COVID victims. How many other democratic states miss managed Their COVID patients .
I’m in WI, and if you would’ve told me in March that I’d be voting for Trump in November, I would’ve said you were crazy. Definitely another silent one.
That’s right, there are millions of silent ones, Independents, Democrats and Republicans for Trump who are Christians and God loving People!!!
Right on
You look at everything….lmfao
Added $6.6,Trillion to our debt in 3.5 yrs, 30 million people out of work, has doubled our deficit, hasn’t done 1 thing towards health care, pharma highest ever, GDP -32.9%, Highest BKs for farmers in last 20 years, Mexico hasn’t paid for shit much less a wall, 3 new miles of wall built, 10% unemployment and STILL hasnt matched Obamas job gains or wallst. gains….you dont have a clue about one fact. Typical Fox fed base who are ignorant on facts and long on Fox bullsh*t.
Those numbers are completely made up.
You spelling it out for them is futile. We’re dealing with a ripe combination of ethno-nationalism and idiocy. This is gonna be a long fight and we’re way past the point of being able to persuade with empiricism I’m afraid.
Typical left wing statement. “The others , who dare to not agree with us, are ignorant. ” unfortunately, I know perfectly this attitude. I am french . We have invented left ideology. Before that , de were a superpower. They have ruined us and they are glad . Vote Trump. You are lucky.
“One of ‘them’ liberals”? ..LOL!
So…what is that full picture then? What are the ‘facts’? What’s really happening that you can see that so many can’t?
I see these vague ‘we know the truth’ answer all over but no one ever gives details…
Yeah, because Liberals aren’t Americans, right? Get out of here with that ish! BTW, it’s would HAVE, not would OF.
He’s not predicting a popular vote win, he’s predicting an electoral college win.
That’s not the will of the American people.
That’s the will of a small group of electors.
You say “The American people are not stupid” yet you refer to “ them liberals “ as if “them” are from Uranus! As usual , incoherent , haphazard, and unsubstantiated Rambling.
we really look at the full picture, fox AND infowars! yes, i’m continually amazed at the cosmopolitan breadth of trump voters’ knowledge and grammatical talent
Please learn to write correct English before submitting your comments. The word is “have” not “of”. Your level of culture is
appalling.
Yes oooo, they planned it and exhibiting but it is rapidly slowing and most Americans like myself have seen it. None of the left had condemned what is going on because they knew what they are doing but we the believers believe there is time for everything. God is in control.
Agreed, he forgets the pandemic and the poor response, which wasn’t a factor in any other election. His math based calculations can’t account for that.
I would love to think that way except for the fact that none of Trump’s supporters seem at all concerned about the pandemic. They are only upset with Democratic governors and mayors who put safety measures in action.
Maybe most of his supporters actually look at what the democrats did and realize it was the worst of all the responses. most of the deaths are in democratic states. They were also the ones that didn’t want to close the boarders and kept inviting people in
I live in Georgia with a Republican Governor and we have a high death rate and what about Florida and Arizona? Republican Governors. There are lots of states with high death rates and Republican Governors. Democratic states that have (or had) high death rates are major population centers, so sadly their death rates are not as surprising.
The pandemic handling is the responsibility of the governor of each state. The federal government supports them. So let’s look at what states have done the worst in dealing with this…. Let’s see, yup a majority of the states who have the worse numbers are controlled by the DEMS!
Not true! The most coronavirus cases occurred in republican states- Arizona, Texas, Florida!
Go to worldometers.info and click on United states, then click on “deaths per million”. 8 out of the top 10 states with highest deaths per million are led by democrat governors. Hmmmm. If we take all states run by democrat governors, the deaths per million is more than 1.5 times than those run by republican governors. Hmmmm.
Trump will win
People see the truth. They don’t want a progressive/socialist country. Period.
Nah socialism is better than corrupt capitalism.
You have not lived in a socialist country, true? Well, I did – socialist Romania, 1971-1989. And we are ill even today. So I’m sorry, you do not know what you are talking about.
I agree. People don’t understand socialism and what is like living in one, unless they have lived in one.
I was in China for 20 years. 5 million died from stavation under Chairman Mao.
Not even 1971 see what is happening in South America, socialist has destroyed the richest country.
You mean CORRUPTED socialism…. lets not lie to ourselves…
Ok, so any economic system can be corrupted. What’s your point?
Capitalism tends to corrupt over time, socialism corrupts immediately. The entire idea of taking things from people by force is a corrupt idea.
We aren’t talking about socialism. Biden is talking communism without saying the world. He wants to tear down borders, give illegals citizenship, Medicare for all and bottom out healthcare – an Obama repeat that no one liked and as usual raise taxes and on and on it goes. People are now appreciating more of what Trump has done and continues to do. Trump will be re-elected. I am eager to see Biden debate Trump. That should be hilarious. Biden has trouble forming sentences and regularly doesn’t know where he is.
Ned, you hit it on The head! Well said.. He has done so much for this country.
I completely agree!
Ha. Wow. That is not even close to true.
Without capitalism you couldn’t have socialism. Socialism just steals from the capitalists who does the work. Please tell me in just one way how socialism creates wealth? Socialism just robs Peter to pay Paul. Redistribution is all it does unlike capitalism which grows, mines and innovates to create wealth and to create cheaper technology in which the poorer people can afford. Remember when a HD TV costed 10k if it wasnt for capitalism you wouldn’t have $300 4k tvs you’d still have to pay 10k. It allows even the poorest of people to afford some luxury…… “America will never be a socialist country!”
That’s literally what we are now thanks to trump
He’s a political scientist with a pretty accurate data model and you are some anonymous person on the internet. Who has better credibility here?
Trump will lose reelection and Joe Biden will win 95%
Trump is the pervert. Not Joe Biden
It’s math. And math doesn’t lie. He says in the article, Trump will most likely lose the popular vote.
Did you understand what you read? This isn’t a poll. It’s a forecast model using election primary attendance and voter excitement. This model has accurately predicted the outcomes of 25 out of 27 US elections. In the two they got wrong, the fight was very close and the victories were controversial. You cannot deny that it is much more accurate than any poll out there.
I’d take this forecast over your feelings any day.
No, Boom San Augustine, this model has predicted 5 out of 6. It is another model that has predicted 25 out of 27 and it is that model that has predicted 25 of 27 and that uses real data from across the board and does not rely almost entirely on how well Trump did in the primaries when he had virtually no competition (and in a lot of states no competition because the GOP wouldn’t allow anyone to run against him) has predicted Biden will win.
Trump is going to win again !!! The Silent Majority will rise up again to defeat the radical left socialist agenda and we will have another prosperous, positive 4 years of America and Freedom first.
Don’t ever underestimate the power of honest, hard working, God loving, humanitarian, brave, patriotic, intelligent Americans to again choose the right President to continue to make America Strong, Prosperous and Great Again!!??
and you ignore the socialist agenda of Biden
Hitler was a socialist
Not to mention the “blue states & cites don’t believe in law & order.
And you ignore the fascist agenda of Trump
Mussolini was a fascist.
How do you like your own logic now?
Mussolini was actually a hardcore socialist. Fascism was created as a new type of socialism to replace classical socialism.
Hitler was not a socialist – he was a fascist. I suggest you consult your dictionary to see the difference.
National Socialism to be exact (NSDAP) as opposed to Soviet’s International Socialism (better stay away from either one)
Ha the Nazi party was not socialist? Hmm that is weird, because the last time I checked, the Nazi party’s actual name was- Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei. Translation= National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Instead of consulting that dictionary, maybe you’d be better off opening another book. Like perhaps, a history book.
Hitler was the leader of the NATIONAL SOCIALIST PARTY…
Hitler was not a socialist. Nazis fought communists in the streets.
You are either confused or haven’t read history?
Hitler was a fascist dictator. Not Socialist.
The economy with Trump right now is UP. The Civil unrest in Seattle, Portland, New York and Chicago is all run by Democratic Mayors that are failing and destroying these Cities! ❤️TRUMP??2020
What you and so many of you liberal leftists is the fact that there is a silent majority. And the tactics the Democrats have shown to them(me included), just swung the votes in Trumps favor. I will guarantee people that haven’t voted in the last few elections or better yet, have never voted, will be voting for law and order. That means a vote for Trump. The economy will not be a factor when riots are burning down cities and tormenting law-abiding citizens. Democrates are trying to bring an age of Socialism into this country and the only thing Socialism leads to is Communism, That’s just a fact.
I agree Brian. The Democrats made a huge mistake by not calling out the cancel culture with the illegal tearing down of statues, the riots, etc. Most Americans do not want to see our culture and history erased. But the economy does play into it. Trump built a strong economy which got crushed by the virus/lockdowns. The voters in the middle will re-elect Trump because they know that he can rebuild the economy back. Biden has ZERO credibility on economic issues and has already promised to reverse the tax cuts that lowered the unemployment numbers. It’s hard to believe that a Presidential candidate is vowing to raise taxes during a recession.
I haven’t voted since 2012 when I voted for Obama. The democrats are insane now, Trump is getting my vote this year.
Yes, as a classical liberal, Trump checks off many more boxes than than Biden or the Dems. I am glad you understand that now. People are waking up.
My mother lives in a swing state. She hasn’t voted for 20 years (republican). She didn’t like Trump and didn’t vote for him in 2016. But guess what? She is going to the polls this November and voting for TRUMP.
I think it is pretty easy to see….Get on google Trends and do the following searches….
Trump Button vs Biden Button … more people are searching for Trump Buttons
Trump Shirt vs Biden Shirt …. more people are searching from Trump Shirts than Biden Shirts
Trump Sign vs Biden Sign … more people are searching for Trump Signs vs Biden Signs
Trump Bumper sticker vs Biden Bumper Sticker … more people are searching for Trump Bumper stickers than fro Biden bumper stickers
Add to that the poll from a while back that about 76% of of voters are AFRAID of mentioning their political views right now, do you think those 76% are those voting for Biden?
This guy is basing his ideas on a model that has won out 25 out of the last 27 elections. Biden cannot manage to spit out a decent sentence, do you think that will endear him to the electorate? I know what you are saying makes sense to you but you are validating that on flawed data and on your own experience (which is probably colored with a lot of outspoken people against Trump).
Christopher Fair, I appreciate your suggestion about googling the spiritwear for the respective candidates. Very interesting points. Thank you.
The polls are wrong! The last election Trump got 8% of the African-American vote and right now he’s got 38% that’s a big jump! Last election the police Union backed Hillary Clinton, and there’s a lot of them and Trump still won! Play this time they’re backing Donald Trump because the Democrats are treating police like third-class citizens and that’s all across the country. Everett Police department in this country is sick of it do you know their family and their people that love them they’re all voting Trump! And all these people in these cities that are being suppressed by criminals right now because the Democratic party does not take care of their own cities and won’t protect the citizens, so guess what those people will vote for Donald Trump, because they don’t want to be owned by a bunch of criminals inner cities on your Street! So does that tell you anyting and most of the rest of the population don’t want to be dictated or communist, so that’s all I got and I think you’ll find out that it’s true! Oh and one more thing the Democrats think they can buy anybody and I’m quite sure if they paid this guy to pick Biden to win, but they can’t buy Donald Trump and that’s what they hate!
the police union backed trump in 2016, don’t lie
Trump does not have 38% of the African American vote. I’m not sure what you’re looking to gain by saying that, but it’s absolutely asinine and not even remotely true.
Trump has the approval of that many black voters. That many won’t vote for Trump, but he will receive more than 8%. If he gets more than 13%, it will be almost impossible for Biden to win.
Don’t worry- there is another model that has outperformed this one. It predicts Biden to win
https://fox5sandiego.com/news/politics/professor-who-has-accurately-predicted-every-election-since-1984-says-trump-will-lose/
Laura G: I believe you are referring to Professor Allan Lichtman. Although I am a Republican, I am a big fan of Professor Luchtmans.’ In fact I am reading his book,” The keys to the White House” right now. He is VERY accurate. You are correct. In fact his model would have predicted the popular vote in every election from 1860 to 2012. However, his model is really designed to predict the popular vote. One of the tables in his book shows that the keys, although predicting the popular vote winner, would not have predicted the winner of the electoral college in the following races: 1876, 1888, and 2000. So his model would not have predicted the actual winner in three races from 1860 to 2012. If 6 or more keys go against the party in power, they are predicted losers. In 1876 the Republicans had 9 keys against them but won. ( the electoral college) In 1888 the Democrats had only 5 keys against them but lost. In 2000 the Democrats also had 5 keys against them and lost. In summation: Lichtmans’ model did not predict the actual winner in three elections from 1860 to 2012. Norpoths’ model did not predict the winner in two elections from 1912 to the present. Over all I would say the two models are about even in actual predictive value.
Although Allan Lichtman says Biden will win, Lichtman’s methodology says Trump will win. His Keys are useful. I think his bias is showing in the answers he assigns this year.
He marks Trump as not charismatic. Lichtman doesn’t like POTUS, but to say he is not charismatic is ridiculous.
He gives Trump no major policy changes. How about the wall, moving the Embassy to Jerusalem, his being the first to negotiate with North Korea, getting us out of the Paris Climate Change agreement which would have the US shouldering an outsized part of the cost, then we have the Serbia -Kosovo economic agreement last week, and the public acceptance of Israel’s existence by several ME countries. For him to say no major successes in Foreign Policy is disingenuous.
Even without the improving Covid economy, that would give Trump 2 more true answers, and 2 less false answers, putting him on the path to re-election according to Lichtman’s 13 Keys.
Keep thinking that. His base is expanding and especially among college students – new voters. They are thrilled that someone actually cares about their finances. The pay roll tax removal till the end of the year has really got their attention. Unemplyment continues to go down and people associate the unrestrained violence and rightfully so to the Democrat party. Every single one of the cities being destroyed is run by a Dem governor and managed by a Dem mayor. People are noting and remain unimpressed with Altzheimer Biden. Kamala Harris has also been defending the violent protesters and the far left issues. This is not what people want. They value safety and prosperity more, closed borders not the opposite that Biden offers when he has a coherent moment.
I am a 2016 Clinton voter that will be proudly voting Trump because of the BLM riots and hate speech this year.
He also Didnt Factor In the Dems Swinging to the Radical Lunny Left And the Support for defund the police and Huge Tax Hikes . Simply Put Joe Biden is now running about saying buy American Make American. 30 years too late .
Funny..stock market broke a new record…TODAY
I’m surprised you think the riots hurt Trump. You think people are going to vote for the destruction of property?
It appears that you may be ignoring some facts as well. The rioting, looting, and murders by leftist activists have a big impact. Your seeing people public denounce Trump out of fear. But in the privacy of the vote they will support him… These radical calls to defund police, and embrace lawlessness will be the lefts downfall this year.
Let me guess, based on your commentary you are definitely a Bernie bro. How’d that work out for you?
Sadly he is not
Good try.
Most independents and Republicans expect an economy trashing before elections – that’s why we sell our stocks and buy in when the dems run. We love Trump and nothing will change, not your opinion or mine. Take a look at WalkAwayCampaign to see the number of people leaving dems.
This is a good poll.
Are you considering what the left has let happen this summer in all cities across the country ?? Are you not factoring in that as well ….. ??? People will not stand up for what has been happening across all liberal ran cities, they see that and run in the opposite direction.
Trump is not as unpopular as the media would have you believe, and the blame for COVID rests on a variety of people. Trump took action in January while Pelosi encouraged people to get togther in groups. The legitimate focus is on the Governors. Looking at you Cuomo.
What exactly did Dump do in January????
Despite the pandemic ,Trump supporters wearing masks, came out overwhelmingly during the primaries to support him ,even though he was the only candidate on the ballot. Voter turn out for Trump in the primaries, was much more than Obama‘s when he ran for reelection.
When Trump is head to head with Biden in MN, literally the most blue state in the country at least historically speaking (havnt voted for a republican president since 1972) that tells you what you need to know. If California, New York, and Illinois decided every election without an electoral college you might be right. But that’s why the electoral college was created in the first place. The needs, interests, and policy goals of California are very different than say Michigan, MN, Pennsylvania etc.
You don’t pay attention to the REAL America then and your REAL fellow citizen. You just listen to the MSM and those who share you opinion. Trump is NOT as unpopular as you are being led to believe. But you believe what you wrote if it helps you sleep better at night. Trump will win again in November and it won’t be close.
The one fact you are ignoring. Most of the people you are talking about are strictly voting against Trump. They are not voting for Biden. He is a three- time loser who is seen as old and tired. I see Covid-19 as an issue, if not there it would be pretty easy to win. But at the end of the day the same people that hated Trump 4 years ago hate him now. They mostly like in the same states he didnt win last time. And when media people keep talking landslide for Biden you have to wonder. Will he be forced to take a cognitive test? Cmon man
Are you kidding? Fact is that the economy is in great shape considering Corona, and the reason is because the Trump presidency got it so strong before Corona that it is still stable and growing. Check out the stock market, where it was before Trump was elected, the hit it took when Corona hit, and where it has rebounded to.
Trump is not as unpopular as people assert. Further, there are a lot of problems with Biden and Harris being unpopular with large segments of the Democratic party. The response to COVID is a VERY subjective measure. Many people, myself included, believe that he did everything within his restricted authority as a federal official, that the state officials are the ones that fell down. Social unrest is rightly blamed not on Trump, but on weak and ineffective Democratic leaders and policies. You don’t see this kind of social unrest in Dallas, San Diego or any other Republican dominant city. Not on this scale and not without outside interference. What margins are gone? You’re not ACTUALLY going to try to cite a poll after how wrong they’ve been all these years, now, are you? The economy is something people will remember. It was ROARING when COVID hit, the STATE governors shut the economy down, and now it’s ROARING back again, it’s nearly at the level it was at BEFORE the pandemic. I think you are very much tilting facts to try to favor your own bias. You shouldn’t do that. OBJECTIVELY examine the facts.
Be back november 5th. Let’s talk then. The final.polls should be in. Some chat would be a good thing. I have no clue who is going to win after 2016. Anyones call.
Trump is a negotiator. Democrats are demanders. Trump can’t be bought. Democrats can and have. Trump follows through, democrats do not. Trump talks to the people, democrats run to MSM.
Dude, Trump isn’t unpopular. You may believe that — but you’re likely inside an echo chamber.
Math is math. It was explained above. And while it may seem crazy, looking into it, it’s not. I understand their are a lot of folks who don’t want to see this happen, but I have to agree with his findings.
If you read the article, feelings and emotions don’t count. Besides, it’s the media that says his base is dwindling; which is not true. It’s actually growing.
Hey Libtard, do you have a track record of predicting 24 out of 26 elections correctly? Because Helmut Norpoth DOES !
Hey Reptard, Have you ever looked at the results for the last 26 elections? A g-damn dyslexic monkey could have picked those winners. Any half wit moron (which means pretty much any Republican) can see what the trends have been since the turn of the last century. Tell you what, I’m going to use a prediction model that picks election winners based on their incumbency and after normal term limits by picking the opposing party. Guess what? I’d be just as accurate as this jackass. Of course the two elections this genius couldn’t determine were the two closest elections that had ever happened. Wow! Imagine that? His model can only predict runaway elections and not close ones. He DOES have the magic touch. Funny how Reptards are so easy to believe in stats and numbers whenever they fit their own narrative but when it comes to anything else it’s all fake news and fake polls. Jesus take the wheel!!
I’m a mathematician. The way this works is through a model called regression analysis. He takes many variables into consideration, but the regression analysis is able to determine which factors have the biggest impact on the outcome. 90% of the outcome can possibly be determined by fewer than 5 variables, and all other variables combined then only account for 10% of the outcome. Since the variability of these 10% variables are so small compared to the 90%, they have little impact and no longer need to be included for consideration of the final result.
Norpoth is very clear……He do not use emotional issues; only predictable facts that had been happened independently, that are objective non subjective….then are math factors.
Trump voters will blame China for the virus. Biden is not going to debate and everyone knows he’s not capable and Harris is not African American. Therefore no voters for the majority. It will be Trump’s new term and China knows that already.
Trump is only unpopular with the TV demographic of the left. Studies show he’s very popular with the internet demographic, people who actually watch his conferences and hear what he says as opposed to what they’re told he said and by media talking heads. I was anti Trump before I started paying attention to Trump now I’m voting for Trump in 2020. My first time ever voting for a Republican.
Just watch what happens. Four more years EASY. We are fed up with the hate-filled liberal BS. Trump in a LANDSLIDE
What’s that? Trump’s unpopularity is only related to Democrats not to the country. Wuhan Virus response? Better than most european countries and when the flights from and to China were suspended he was immediately accused of xenophobic. After 1 month he was accused of taking too long to close the borders…Social unrest? These riots look like they’re bound to help Trump secure a second term, all of a sudden, those riots look like to be a bad idea!!! Don Lemon and “Fredo” Cuomo suddenly are saying that most Black people don’t want police defunded. They don’t want fewer police there. They want more. And that most communities of color in this country need police…
While polls can reflect how popular a candidate is at a point in time, they don’t always accurately predict the election result.
It was deliberately stated that he looks at the primaries. This isn’t about feelings, but facts. Math.
Trump is doing very well under the given circumstances that his opponents have never allowed him to do his work , always creating unnessary ,undue and unjustified troubles right from beginning. Stilll he has done well and remarkably.
Markets have bloomed and very high even now.
Pre pandomic, economy has flourished extremely well, GDP increase to a hnew high level,small business job creation reached highlevel prepandemic, unemployment level came down pre corona.Now again started to attain the pre pandemic status of improvements on all fronts.
Even Corona was universal and not the making of Trump. Even the hospital figures are to be scrunized and investigated as these treatments involve huge Federal reimbursements.
Globally he has been working with many countires like North Korea. He initiated peace agreement between Israel and UAE. He withdrew a large no of American troops fromAfganisthan and also troops from NATO.He is against illegal immigrants.Afterall why US should encourage illegal immigrants .
Whoever wants to come to USA let them come in a legal way.
Trump kept his promise for Southern boundary wall in spite of huge obstructions from opposition.
Verify the present net worth of previous Presidents what it was for them before 15 or 20 years and the present net worth of past Presidents. How such things are happening.
Tax restructuring and tax reductions were effected by Trump. During Corona many people were provided with $600 p.m due to los of employmenta nd now $4oo. Many small and medium businesses were provided with great financia supports. Even noow those earning below $100000 have been exempted from Pay rolltax cut for some more period. Many benefitts provided for study loans etc.
Imports from China and other countries are being minimized to stop the draining away of the Anmerican exchequre to stopoutflow of many hundred Billion dollars.
Political lobbying reduced and lobbying for foreign countries stopped which has irritated many who were earlier benefitted.
US People should thoroughly study and check what all has been achieved in the last 3 and half years. There are many more achievements by Trump on manufacturing, health care improvement, Lowering of health insurance, affordable health care, import of medicines at lower prices, more support in health care for uninsured peiople,womens’ welfare, action to stop violence ,withdrawal of job killing agreements like PARIS CLIMATE Accord ,Farmers uplifting, large increase in Coal exports,Reviving Space programs, Strengthening military etc.etc. Please view all his executive orders since 2017.
Americans need the second spell of TRUMP definitely for their own welfare and false propogandas against Trump will not affect TRUMP, but certainly the Americans if he is not reelected.Therefore all Americans should vote to reelect TRUMP.
In case you forgot, Mitch McConnell and his Senate lackeys dedicated themselves to making Obama’s time in office a failure. Despite this, Obama managed to rescue a collapsing economy, and rebuilt it so strong that it took 3 years of Republican incompetence to wreck it.
The economy with Trump right now is UP. The Civil unrest in Seattle, Portland, New York and Chicago is all run by Democratic Mayors that are failing and destroying these Cities! ❤️TRUMP??2020
The prediction like last time is 100% correct.
Right on Target!!!!!
You sound exactly the way someone argues when a stock is going up through the roof and people are making money, and then you give all the reasons why you think it shouldn’t be going through the roof, yet it continues. His model works – yours doesn’t. Fair or not fair. Time to stop ignoring reality.
I like your thinking. But the economy is on its way to hit an all time high. I do think that he is taking it too far with Nevada and Hawaii and I think it’s gonna be a close election but trumps base has stayed slightly the same and last election he had 9% of the black vote. He is expected to get 36% this election due to the persistent violence and Biden’s running mate. Over all, it’s gonna come down to how much people on the left hate trump to elect Biden
You’re wrong on a number of fronts. Take Wisconsin, for example, where Hillary Clinton at this time had a “comfortable” 10-point lead over Trump (Trump won in the GE there), yet Biden is only ahead by 3.5 points. Baaaaad omen for Democrats.
Moreover, anyone with an IQ above a turnip knows the thetoric vs. reality as it relates to COVID-19. And LOLOL@social unrest. Oh you mean the same ‘social unrest’ happening almost exclusively in LIBERAL-run cities, with do-nothing LIBERAL mayors in places like Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, NYC, etc? And in case you haven’t taken nonte, the national unemployment just dipped under 10%, which is absolutely remarkable considering COVID-19 wiped out 60 million jobs in about 4 months time.
And what does “Dementia Joe” have to say about all the social unrest? Biden said there were ‘no racial riots under his VP/Obama admin LOLOL. Gee, does FERGUSON/MICHAEL BROWN and BALTIMORE ring a bell, Dementia Joe? He’s on the verge of falling apart, and independents especially are taking notice. 4 more years of Trump, thank God!
Math doesn’t factor in feelings. It’s based on hard numbers that already speak directly to the current actual real world sentiment. Hard data, not your personal interpretations. No one voted for Joe. Trump got record size primaries. There’s no question about who’s going to win. How can you seriously be so dim?
President Trump will not be punished for COVID-19 virus that was out of his control. Prior to COVID-19 virus the economy was at an all time high. Your 401K was making great money. Unemployment were at records low. He saved companies from moving overseas. He stood up to China in unfair trade. He was the only president to meet with North Korea leader which has not launched a missile since. He has done exactly what he said he would do in 2016. Don’t cry in Nov 2020 like you did in 2016 when the math is correct and he is reelected.
How is he unpopular? Rural America take a drive. Guess what I see everywhere? Trump Flags and signs. Instead of polling go for a cross country drive on a weekend.
Trump is only unpopular to those with a radical agenda. The average US citizen may not love Trump but if there’s any chance this country’s freedom survives, people will vote for Trump. As well as those who support law enforcement which a grand majority of voters. Not to mention the key endorsements by six Minnesotan mayors. Even among Independents, Trump is leading Biden by 10% as of August 31st
You mean all the things the Democrats did and then made Trump respond. Civic unrest well it’s hard for Trump to help when Demorat mayor’s and governors refuse the help. You left are so full of shit. I’m not saying he’s the greatest human being ever for sure but he’s far far better than any dem candidate we have.
Did you even read the article?
That’s funny. Social unrest and all the violence has been perpetuated and conducted by DEMOCRATS. No Republican cities are burning. The virus is from CHINA, not Trump. Governors run their own states and all agree Trump has given them everything they asked for in controlling the virus. Trump is awesome and even amidst the virus the stock market is almost at an all-time high. This president is amazing and has gotten so much done for the country with ZERO help from the congress and nothing but attacks, spying and lies against him. WAKE UP! Biden appears to be a creepy pedophile, clearly the true racist, and senile!!!
The truth of the matter is that Trump can’t lose in vacuum. When Biden refuses to undergo Cognition tests, he has already committed political harakiri at his age. Professor is right that Biden is nonstarter to begin with.
Well the august employment rate came out better than expected it’s below 9% from a high of 15% in April. The stock markets have been hitting record highs for over 2 months now. So I’d say with a total shutdown of the country and a reboot after 6 weeks and some places are just starting to get back the economy is surprisingly good. We need another fat stimulus package but the house is on vacation now.
The president signed an executive order to send stimulus checks out but was stopped by the house, so seems like the house needs a fresh change back to a majority for the other party so things can get done.
The economy has recovered you Yo-yo!
Have you seen the stock market?
Confidence is high, and the housing market continues to explode.
Many people have just as much if not more money now than before COVID-19 started.
You’re joking, right? The economy is already better than Obama’s economy. If you can’t see the rampant enthusiasm Trump has vs. the lack of enthusiasm Biden has, then I don’t know what to tell you. Oh wait, I do know what to tell you, turn off CNN, that crap will rot you’re brain.
I think you may be looking at the cause and not the effect. As a result of the riots, it has strengthened the independent vote and caused defection (scale is very vague) on the moderate left and simply ensured the conservative vote. The reaction to the C19 is mixed right. I don’t think anyone can make a prediction based on current events and can only use historic references to prior issues. In addition, the accuracy of traditional polls is in question as many Trump supporters/voters won’t provide their choice in fear of some type of negative push-back and even physical violence as seen in 2016 and thereafter. So..?
You are going to be in for a really bad time.
LMAO!!! His popularity is a lot higher than you think. Just remember, I’m not a “likely voter” and I am EXTREMELY enthusiastic about voting for him again. It’s 2016 all over again, on steroids. Can’t wait to watch you idiots cry again. Btw, it’s not trumps fault I lost my job; I blame the governor of PA, Tom Wolf. See you on Election Day!
Not sure where your getting your information , but the Hispanic , Black voting percentage has increased .
Trumps unpopularity? Are you kidding?? Have you seen his rallies? How about Biden’s rallies?
What you describe as facts, he describes as opinion. Therefore he doesn’t use it in his model. You didn’t read the article, did you?
Y’all are ignoring the fact that all this social unrest and other bullshit is being started and committed by supporters of liberals and democrats, and the American people see that.
Trump’s unpopularity? Where do you live, in Mars? I did not even read the rest of your comment!
Trump’s base has actually grown by leaps and bounds. Center left voters who voted for Obama like me have been appalled at the shameful way the left has conducted themselves. Multiple so called scandals manufactured out of thin air. Dragging Kavanaugh through the mud. No sorry it’s time for a hard shift right and that’s exactly what we will get in November.
But there are those if us I’m the real reworked that realize most every issue you mention we either caused or exacerbated by the democratic party… Which will push even more votes in Trump’s favor.
Please tell me you arent that ignorant. What your complaining about isnt facts. Its opinion and thats why the model does so well. Just because you feel that way, 10 people 2 streets over dont. Its a scientific model not an opinion poll.
Just listen to yourselves talk …..all of you… I’m going to vote and let my vote count and make sure no one takes away my vote.
I think you are the one that’s ignoring the facts.
The base base expanded by millions. What makes you think it has shrunk? There’s nothing to support that.
You missed the whole point of his research, he clearly his research is purely based off real facts and things that happened not opinions, feelings or beliefs like you posted.
The Gallup polls just came out and the approval rating for President Trump was 56% which is an all time high for a President. With Professor Norpoth’s model it will be a Trump 2020 Win.
“Trump’s unpopularity” have you seen recent Trump rallies?
Dude, did you not read the whole article? His model is based off of actual primary turnout, not any polls, or unpopularity rating (more polls), or a small handful of RINO lawmakers. It has a good track record for a reason.
If he’s had to update his model twice already in the six elections he’s predicted so far I’m not sure I would be thinking this is a forgone conclusion that his model will work this time.
Fake News put out by Trump operatives to influence voters. Trump will LOSE this next election by a LANDSLIDE!!!
LOL you probably thought Hillary would win too.
She did win the popular vote.
TRUMP WILL WIN!!!!!!!!….. we live in Massachusetts,a very “liberal” state however from central mass to the exodus of Boston to beautiful cape cod,sorry for you but presidentTRUMP IS EVERYWHERE!!!!! Weekend rallies,lawn signs ,public speaking ,the silent majority is ready for law and order and a free capitalist nation…..night night…
Exactly. We are in Calif as well. When we watch the Dems and Libs destroying state after state with riots, civil unrest, and socialism…Trump will win. I have no doubt.
That would be the most amazing thing if California, New York, New Jersey or Massachusetts went red. I have family in California and they can’t stand the liberals and their in school indoctrination. We shall see soon. Trump 2020
I think of the best chance of those 4 going red is New Jersey. I expect New Hampshire and Minnesota to flip. I would absolutely love Biden’s home state of Delaware to flip.
According to you, all mathematical models predicting a Trump loss/Biden win are put out by Biden operatives, just as this model showing Trump winning was put out by Trump operatives. It sounds like you are upset that other people voted for Trump in the Primaries.
So sorry for your lose. I thought you fools believed in science and things like statistical analysis. I guess it only works when it agrees with your warped sense of reality.
You are clearly desperate for that to be true.
I’m not sure I agree with you. I predicted it in 2016 and I still the same factors indicating his reelection.
@kathryn. I am not sure how a professor who runs a mathematical model for 97 years is fake news. The trouble with liberals is they never saw Trump winning in 2016, never accepted the results and once again when he wins. Guarantee you liberals will argue after the election for the popular vote. Trump will win the electoral college and will still be YOUR PRESIDENT.
Is no one taking into account how many people are pissed of at the liberal Dems for pushing a Socialist agenda? Don’t forget most of those young loud liberal voices do not even vote for the most part. It’s all about being SJW’s for their social media posts.
I’d like more information on this model for primary enthusiasm. H Clinton received a majority of the delegates in 2016, before super delegates. Trump did not. He received 45%. By contrast Bush in 92 received 73% and B Clinton in 96 reveived 89%. B Clinton also handily lead in polls and in the EC. I don’t recall many people thinking B Clinton was ‘shaky’ in 96. Norpoth seems to A: contradict himself and B: say he predicted something improbable which was actually expected.
Here’s your enthusiasm. In the Republican presidential primaries (even w/ GOP primaries being cancelled in VA, Nevada, Arizona & other states due to overwhelming support for DJT), Trump still garnered 350,000+ more votes as an incumbent with no opposition than Sleepy Joe running to actually be the candidate.
The simple fact is that Biden got the primary vote because Bernie was to far to the left. Biden has now embraced the far left agenda of Bernie and AOC. It’s very unfortunate but I can not vote for a Trojan Horse candidate. As a life long Democrat I will have to hold my nose and vote for old orange hair.
Your oponion is exactly corect
How can you possibly be a lifelong Democrat and change your ideology because Bernie, far left, didn’t get the nomination and Biden did, moderate Democrat. You don’t make any sense. If you were sincere, and I don’t think you possibly can be, or else you don’t understand what a Democrat is, you just wouldn’t vote. You must be a closet Independent.
Alan Lichtman has a model as well. He claims he was right in 2000. Some fancy twisting of the truth and the facts he uses in order to justify how his prediction of Al Gore winning was wrong, when in fact Bush won. I could go on but let it suffice to say that the SCOTUS simply stopped AL Gores attempt at cherry picking counties to recount. This time Alan is letting his emotions get in the way again. He is using things to give Biden an edge. The protests are not protests against the Trump Administration and they are very small compared to the population of the US and they are primarily in democrat communities/cities. In addition Trump did a fantastic job with the economy and Lichtman imagines that the American public blames Trump for the virus and what is being done about it. No one will get blamed for the virus or the response. Another way to put it is that Trump will not get blamed for the slow down in the economy. Imagine if this had happened under Obama. The PLDs would be claiming that it is not Obama’s fault, etc, etc, etc. People need to see things from both sides, both points of view. People who support Trump are also silent about their opinions because of the oppression by the left. Progressive Liberal Democrats. As long as that continues you will not see any truth in polls.
Biden is not a Progressive Liberal, in fact he is very Centrist – and his platform is a clear indication of that. The next 8 weeks will determine who wins, not the last 8 months. For Trump to win, he needs Independents, and Moderate Republican females. For Biden to win, he needs a massive voter turnout, and for Trump to continue his current blathering. The economy actually flipped under Obama, but Trump continued it. That fact is easily proven with actual data. Right now, there are thousands of individuals who are saying they voted for Trump in 2016 but wing this cycle. How many are saying they voted for Hillary but will now vote for Trump. It’s going to be next to impossible for Trump to pick up new voters, so it’s likely for that reason alone Trump will lose. Best move for Republicans is to nominate Nikki Haily – she’s easily win, and bring back all those voters Trump is alienating.
“ How many are saying they voted for Hillary but will now vote for Trump.”
About 350,000 to be exact. Check the #WalkAway movement.
Also you stating Biden is a centrist goes totally against his support for Green New Deal support.
Finally… check Biden’s FB page followers and compare with Trump’s. About 10x more in favor of Trump. Do the same with online views when each speak. About the same ratio.
I view that as enthusiasm.
I’m one of those!
As a life long Democrat, I voted for Hillary, but will now vote for Trump. Six members of my family including me, are running away from the Democrats (#WalkAwayFromDemocrats). Like us, many long-life Democrats are doing the same, they are walking away from the crazy Socialist agenda the Democrats are implementing.
I have worked too hard to let any lazy Liberal enjoy for free my hard work. So there, that’s your answer regarding Trump getting new voters. Like us, there are thousands of silent voters that are walking away from the Democrats.
It is good to see so many lifelong Dems that have woken up and reject Biden and the radical left socialist agenda. It is scary to say the least and if Biden wins he wont be there long before crazy Kamala takes over. She is farther left than Bernie! There is too much at stake in this election. Trump while many view him as crazy is the only sane choice period. I dont care what party you belong to you either want to preserve our country or you want to see it turn into the next Venezuela! The choice is yours. Make your choice wisely!
The unceasing civil unrest triggered by the BLM and endorsed with demagogy by the democrats will have the contrary outcomes the democrats are hoping. In France we call this the “chienlit effect”. Most people are beginning to be weary of the riots, added with the Covid19 crisis. It’s very bad for the business. Now most people want a comeback to a strict order: They cannot rely on the democrats while they are endorsing the “Defund the police” movt.
In addition the democrats are charging Trump about the bad dealing with the Covid19 crisis. But people know well that health issues are first the liability of the states, not the federal state. The disaster in NY isn’t Trump’s but democrat’s guilt.
Trump will win in a landslide 100%,anybody who thinks the opposite is a brainwashed individual with extreme low understanding of politics,life and electoral cycles!
i always like to hope that people with this sort of confidence have the balls to bet their house on the result. the odds on trump are excellent at the moment. confident people yap away, lemme tellya THIS and lemme tellya THAT and lemme tellya another thing, and just generally annoying the bejeezus out of people … but do they have the stomach to make lots and lots of money off this certain fact? no, but lemme tellya SUMMING ELSE…
The model could be right but I have some reservations.
Tl;Dr version the analysis mqy have left out some key variables that should be includwd and here may be some model dependency issues.
Norpoth was not the only academic who predicted President Trump’s victory in 2016, and those same folks who predicted the President Trump’s are predicting Bidens victory.
Norpoth makes a point about this being a mathematical model,but is a statistical model, which means when you add more variables, things can change. That doesn’t mean his model is wrong but I am skeptical especially after the 2nd quarter GDP growth report.
I am skeptical about for couple reasons one his model does not seem to predict or include measurements for economic determinants. The models CEVs seem to be strictly based on candidate enthusiasm which he measures using the first two primaries from 2016 and 2020 .
While this unique approach I would like to see how variables such as short term economic results specifcally second quarter GDP growth and unemployment have have on the model, (though adding these may reduce the scope and create an even smaller n, as the availability of data might not extend as far back.)
Another thing I noticed Dr. Norpoth does not state how he compensated for the GOP not having a SC primary tbos year (a crucial data point in his model). Also while this stretched back to 1912 the n size is is 27 which fairly small n which can affect the the outcome of the analysis. (Given that Norpoth is using a regression model)
I also think that there may be some model depenecy issues as it seems by this conversation Dr. Norpoth seems to be drawing his conclusions based more on his model than on the actual data.
Dr. Allan Lictman and Dr. Alan Abromowitz are predicting the opposite . Both predicts a Biden electoral college win. Furthermore Abramowitz’s model also predicted a trump win in 2016
Now Dr.Norpoth’s analysis may have include long term economic variables, to be honest i wasn’t able to find a list of all the variables he included in his analysis and he has a point about polls. As stated earlier its not just a mathematical model a statistical model and before you through the whole “Lies Damn Lies and statics” quote Statistics are useful in model social behavior but unlike math humans are not constant.
This is a link to Alan Abromwitz’s prediction:
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/its-the-pandemic-stupid-a-simplified-model-for-forecasting-the-2020-presidential-election
Also Lictman’s which is a video
For more about model dependence
This an article By King and Zeng 2007
https://gking.harvard.edu/node/3657
Jgreicha: You talk about how “ Dr. Allan Lictman and Dr. Alan Abromowitz” are predicting for Biden.
Have they validated their “models” using elections going as far back as 1912? I mean a great model could be run using ANY election in history where the key parameters are used.
And by the way Dr. Lictman wrote a book (I think)providing a path to impeach President Trump. That makes him emotional invested.
Lictmen moved the goalposts because he was wrong about the last election. He after the fact claims he was right anyways because”there was no way to expect pop vote to not matter til now”, & that it means hes been right about every election with his model due to him considering it a win anyway. The thing about this is it means his model therefore is now starting from scratch automatically for the simple fact he just now completely changed his model,so the old models results don’t count anymore & even if they did he was still wrong about this same president losing the last election,Hemet Norpoth conversely is predicting Trump wins was right then & he’s right now,its common sense considering that even on Lictmens model,he gave it to biden based on the fact that he analyzed the numbers before Trump signed the Isreal peace deal,& in lichtmens model Trump needed just 1 more foreign policy win to be considered guaranteed reelection,that is precisely what the Isreal peace deal was a significant win on foreign policy. Add to that him now approving convalescent plasma for covid & the economy booming which it wasn’t when lictmen predicted using his model. Trump now has over 50% approval rating which will go up after stellar RNC let alone once he destroys Biden in debates.
If we’re gathering on the streets in California in support of Trump, it’s gonna be a landslide! California! There’s hope for us yet!!
I love reading the comments on here asserting that Helmut and his objective model are wrong. And their reasons why is their subjective opinions of Trump. On a side note, Biden wanted to let Asians infected with COVID-19 into the usa and called Trump’s travel bans xenophobic. So, if they want to erroneously claim that Trump’s response to the coronavirus was poor which it wasn’t, I’m not sure why they think Biden would’ve done better.
Yes, the difference between Helmut’s model and Allan Lichtman’s model is Helmut’s model is based on objective data whereas Lichtman’s model is based on subjective interpretations. I do know Lichtman is a liberal and hates Trump. He’s public and it and doesn’t try to hide it. Looking at his assessment of making current events fit into his checklist, it does appear that he stretches a lot of things and isn’t being objective. I trust Helmut’s model more. Still, we need to register to vote and get everyone we know registered to vote for Trump. Don’t take this election for granted. I don’t think America can last under a Biden presidency. And with his cognitive decline and old age, Biden likely won’t even finish his first term and will allow his young and inexperienced intern-like female VP take his place. It’s a scary thought.
Hello All,
I think Trump is a hero and perhaps a tragic hero. This man still remains a hero to me. I am not a huge fan of his tweets and social media. However, the democrats and globalist factions have done everything to this man and he is still there plying his steady course in history. He works for the interests of the American People! Joe Biden is in delirium and stealing oxygen from the living and sane among us. The Democratic Party was once a great party for working people. Now, it is full of Socialists, Marxist, and Totalitarian Want to Be’s, funded by one world gooberment Elites. I am ready to retire in the next 12 months. I wish the Democratic Party had a centrist candidate to run. That horse left the barn 50 years ago. Sleepy, Creepy Joe is all they got, along with Black Lesbian Marxist type minority females competing to replace Joe when he is finally declared unfit to hold office. God help us! Why in God’s name did President Obama ever pick this buffoon of man? At least Obama was cognizant of his surroundings. Maybe Obama is a puppet master, and Joe is well you already know the answer…
You clearly have already slipped off your rocker.
Two thumbs up!
Can you also predict the Senate and House races?
You say trump is going to win!….how in the world do you think that when people are blaming the virus and all these deaths on Trump
Interesting,and hopeful!
Thank you for not being bullied to say what liberals want you to say. I believe this and I believed it last time. I was one of the few that did! Trump will win again. He is the best President we’ve ever had. All the misinformation is crazy. I wish people would just do their research and not on YAHOO or GOOGLE! President Trump has done so much for our country. I ask those who put him down because of the pandemic, “What could he have done differently? OR What could YOU do differently, BIDEN? Biden and OBAMA just let the H1N1 go rampant. They even stopped testing because they didn’t want backlash. THEY care nothing about the people! Americans, please wake up! What othere President worked for FREE!!!!???!???!?Wake up! Trump 2020!
I just don’t think changing a President During a Pandemic is a good thing. The Virus is everywhere. Things here could be a lot worse. The President is not responsible, I also do not blame my Democratic Governor. The Market is doing well, and many people continue to go back to work. Our Country is strong, and we will survive this. The President is the stronger choice to fight China.
The silent majority with common sense thought patterns both Republicans and Democrats will vote President Trump rightfully so in a land slide to a 2nd presidency. God Bless America and The silent majority ??
The model may work on the GOP side because essentially the role of NH is the same. That’s not the case of the Democrats anymore because of SC and NV, which now have much more pivotal roles.
But 2020 is also unusual for another reason, and that’s the racism debate that is running through the country. If this had been more of a traditional race, and there had been no counting snafus in Iowa, Pete Buttigieg would have been the nominee, and no one would be even questioning that it wasn’t inevitable that he’d win.
I’m counting on the fact that you are right and I’m also counting on the fact that my prayers will be answered,
Just back from Florida and I can honesty report that I saw thousands of Trump flags, lawn signs & hats . On the other hand I saw less then a dozen Biden lawn signs. Have let to see a Biden boat parade!! The Trump floatilla is out on the water every weekend.
All you have to do is read all the comments in this model and you can see that the prediction for a Trump win is right on target.
i read a lot of stuff, and my impression reading these comments wasn’t that trump will win reelection, but that this is the dumbest comment section i’ve ever seen. i’m wondering whether SBU offers a degree in booger-eating. i’m pretty sure they don’t teach I.T., because when replies get four levels deep they become a column of single letters along the right hand side of the comment window. i’ve seen dozens of comments saying every possible variation of “i like trump therefore this model is awesome”. i’ve seen multiple people saying this model is proof because it uses math and stuff. but the thing that really bewilders me is why do many people who absolutely know for sure that trump will win aren’t betting all their money on the outcome, instead of telling everyone they meet that they totally know who’s going to win
no one is saying that he will he popular vote…….but that does not matter. I do not like Donald Trump but my Dad had dementia and I see the same signs in Biden. Also, when someone brags about never owning a stock, bond, etc, a checking account or a savings account……..that does not exactly instill confidence in me that Biden could even balance a check book let alone bring back the economy. Trump is a business man…….he has gone bankrupt 3 or 4 times and each time brought himself back. He is the logical choice to get the economy/jobs back on track. People have so much hatred for Donald Trump, the man,that you would accept a million dollars from him but then go on the internet and say he stole it.. Everyone is sick of the 4 years of whining and perhaps if the Dems had not spend all their time trying to get rid of him and instead preparing a proper Democratic canditate…….then we would have ailing JOe.
The Trump organization as a whole has 500 different entities underneath it. Only 4 of those have gone bankrupt over the years and he has never filed for personal bankruptcy. With less than 1% of his companies going bankrupt, that seems to be a great track record.
Trump never filed for personal bankruptcy.
I pray that Trump wins this election and in best interest of American people. You cannot blame President Trump for Coronavirus as the whole world is suffering courtesy China. This is one unique President who stood up for Americans coronavirus sufferings against China/WHO and we should all support him. The entire world is suffering not for Mr.Trump, we all are aware of truth and China is to be blamed for mishandling and making situation worse. On contrary, wht better do you find from Biden-Harris. If these duo win America is doomed. Please vote for Mr.Trump as he is working for Americans for many reasons like Economy,immigration, bring jobs to American, American made the importing from asain countries, etc. I am impressed the way he handles so many tough situations without any political experience and I can bet a seasoned politician like Biden or any other wouldn’t do any better. Wish Mr.Trump win 2020 !!
No one is “blaming” Trump for the coronavirus. Many take issue with his response to it, not China’s response.
I agree,
Trump will always have his base, however NOW he ALSO has people like me & many of my Baby Boomer friends who were Democrats for many yrs. Now, we are applaud by the “FAR LEFT” policies of giving Illegal Alien & Criminals more rights , privileges & respect than The Working Class American Citizens who put them in office! Fanning a Race war!! Condoning criminal to riot, destroy property, loot hundreds of stores , set fire to & take over police bldgs & cars, city blocks, demanding “reparations”.
Americans will flee ALL of the democrat led cities, & they will soon lose their grip on minorities when they lose their safety in large cities, d/t indifference to the crime the citizens are being subjected to.
Just look at York City, the EXODUS begins…
I am not a Republican. My mother is from Nicaragua. One of the biggest lies the Democrats spread is that Latinos hate Trump. It just isn’t true. Illegal immigration is a problem and they snatch up jobs. People that immigrated to the US the right way have a respect for the rule of law. Democrats have none.
It’s a model based on an established series of criteria that’s been back-tested for about a 100 years. There’s no need to add new criteria or data points just because you don’t like the outcome.
This is how predictive algorithms work. In sport betting there’s always exceptions, but the exceptions are the rule.
In terms of your view that some event has knocked Trump out, there are just as many or more things now wrecking the dems. Sanctioned riots and violence, the first plea agreement already in the russiagate that’s exploding in the dem faces, the public refusal by Pelosi to negotiate on a covid relief compromise and then having Trump through executive order make her irrelevant, to name a few.
[…] the fact, to ‘correct’ for these mispredictions.” In fact, both Lichtman and Norpoth have made changes to their analysis methods over […]
The electoral college needs to be abolished now!
Mac……The electoral college need to be abolished? For starters it was spelled out very clearly as part of the constitutional foundation by which our nation was formed. Beyond that, getting rid of it would mean that NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, etc…basically a handful of large cities would decide everything for the entire country…and the majority of states in the country would have no say at all. Seems very short sighted. The popular vote applies to individual states which is why they are blue or red states.
Former nyc dem here, I hated Trump and was disgusted when he got in 4 years ago and now I am praying he gets back in and guess what? I personally know LOTS of people like me who feel exactly the same. Trump is far from unpopular despite what you may be seeing. The fact is, many Trump voters, especially new ones know they are putting themselves at risk if they talk about it or admit it so they are Trump supporters in hiding waiting to come out in November. Sane, hardworking people have had enough rioting and destruction and being lectured that they are evil or bad or racist by controlling lunatics that are out there getting media attention and being pushed on us. The destruction and racial unrest are associated with the Democratic Party. Every democratic city is burning now and Dems are calling for LESS cops when terrified people living in these h e l l holes are scared and want MORE cops. I never hear people saying Trump had a poor virus response either. Most I am hearing say he did a great job considering we knew nothing when this started.
I was recently in three airports with a friend who was wearing Trump attire and we were constantly approached by people saying “trump 2020” and nice shirt, nice hat, and a smile and a thumbs up. My friend is black and was approached by black people quite a few times who started conversations and every single one mentioned that Trump has done more for blacks than Obama ever did.
So that is my experience. I have seen a massive shift all round me in my heavily blue area. People who think Biden will win are watching too much CNN.
I made more money than I ever made in my life under Trump, business was explosive. I deal in perennial plants and the season usually ends Sept to October and starts up again around end of March – April. We went all the way to the end of January 2020, it was crazy and started up again end of Feb. Anyone who votes against this guy needs their head examined, on the other hand most of his supporters dont seem to work
I’m so glad that money is your only concern in life, that basic human decency no longer matters to you. That people telling the truth no longer matters to you. You have all been brainwashed so badly that you wouldn’t know the truth if it bit you.
I don’t want to sound repetitive about if, how or why Pres. Trump becomes elected or speculate on the Biden-Harris ticket as both have been represented well on prior posts. What could be a formidable character in play is Pelosi who has the power of impeachment proceedings and would just as well have both Biden-Harris for lunch. Pelosi is as power hungry as the best of them and could never survive a campaign and general election but would shamelessly eat her own dems Biden-Harris. Can you say Pelosi-Shumer? Ugh, ad nauseum.
Nice article. People who think Trump won’t win assume most Americans are sheep who just watch CNN. In reality, a lot of Americans such as myself come from families who have traditionally voted Democrat but are voting Trump this time. Sorry, but we know that our death rate per 1 mil people from covid-19 is lower than that of Italy, Spain, France, UK, Sweden, and Germany, and we have a higher testing rate than any Western country except for the UK. According to realclearpolitics. Also, according to CDC, covid-19 is less deadly than the flu for people below age 25, and less deadly than pneumonia for every single age group. Go look it up on the CDC website. So, most Americans realize that the media and Democrats are playing up a crisis in order to try to divide people. We hate it, and we are voting Trump. Sorry not sorry.
– someone born in the Soviet Union
Good logic and post
I can find nothing claiming Biden said he wanted Asians with covid-19 to come into America.
He didn’t literally… He did they weren’t or competitors and that the weren’t that bad meaning China then called Trump a xenophobic when Trump shut down flights to China
After reading the comments I wonder if we are all living in the same country??? Trump has done INCREDIBLE things for our country. I know that I and my family are WAYYYY better off then when Obama or even Bush was in office. He made promises and kept them.
If you make the very unwise decision to vote for HARRIS/ Biden then understand we are not going to have a socialist nation, it will become a communist nation. Their plan is way to far to the left and the way the Democrats are using domestic terrorist groups to terrorize American citizens and destroy businesses tells me we the truth. Just look at the Democratic run cities right now. Just look at the Democratic run states right now. I am holding this prediction as a hope for America.
Too many people are stuck in social media and on their phones to realize exactly what is going on today. Critical thinkers see how the Democrats are using the pandemic and death of a convicted felon to sway the lazy people stuck on Instagram and TicToc into believing Trump has failed, but they’re the ones screaming don’t use the virus politically. We the PEOPLE see the true scenario and yes, we will vote. We are sick of the games being played at the expense of Americans by the left to regain power at any cost. Trump 2020!
GOD family country will ALWAYS prevele over socialism.
He will win because of BLM. A lot of Democrats are voting for Trump because the liberals are completely batshit crazy. I was a Democrat my entire life and was watching the democratic primaries last year, then BLM happened. I ignored news about Trump for 4 years and recently finally did my research. Turns out I agree with most of his policies. Found out about liberal media brainwashing. I’m not a fan of Trump a person but I can recognize that he loves this country and work so his ass off despite the media fighting him constantly. Trump is also not “Republican”. He is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. He’s switched parties many times. Either way, I don’t care what party. I vote by policy. I remember liking Ron Paul in high school. Trump has the centrist vote 100%.
True
Comments about Trump’s unpopularity are amusing. The poll necessarily accounts for his popularity. Unpopularity is a media narrative until this victory, then the new narrative of Trump stealing the election will be launched.
There are so many that will vote for Trump, after saying BIDEN for fear of retaliation. Trump has done so much for this country. i.e. We don’t depend on anyone for oil,keeping the gas price down…Had more jobs than people,thus people off food stamps,medicaid. Keeps illegals out, legal people regardless are welcome. On and on. Running out of room.
I believe you are 100% right. I cannot imagine this country voting for a party that endorses and supports the things going on in Democrat run cities!!
If Trump don’t win, a civil war is coming!!The American people won’t stand for their policies. That’s why the first thing they will do is to try and take our guns!
I ❤️Trump and praying he wins! Trump is a patriot and he is really the first USA president to project that. I am so happy he repaired the USA and Israel relationship that Obama destroyed. Trump has more accomplishments than corrupt Joe Biden and May the God of Israel shine down on President Trump in the 2020 election❤️??❤️??❤️??❤️??❤️??❤️??❤️??❤️??
Well I Do thing Trump will win, I would say that Befor the China Virus, The U S A did have Jobs, People happy, Good Strong Wall Street , The Economy was great, people just Don’t For get, And I Know Trump will get it back , Even better the next 4 years , And I think Don Jr could run in 2024 And win I Also think by Landslide.He is a very good and Smart Opperater, And has the Right People on his Team. I am Looking at this From Australia .we all like the way he Dose his Job And he is not Paid !! He Loves U S A Ask someone to Do A JOB FREE!!!!
The people that think Trump will lose this election have to be all long time Democrats. Trump is letting the Govs run their states as he should. We can only hope that the Dem voters wake up.
Well, you have to give it to Professor Norpoth. That IS quite a track record. 25 for 27. We also have to remember this: The only two times that the model did not predict accurately was in 1960 and 2000. Those two races were close, however. The 1960 race was close in the popular vote, the 2000 race in the electoral college. He did get the popular vote right in 2000, however. We must also remember that in those two races there was no incumbent president. Therefore, one can argue that in those races with a sitting president, his accuracy for races from 1912 to 1916 has been perfect. That, of course, is the situation we are in now.
Professor Norpoth states that a sitting President with the primary numbers Trump achieved has never lost. I went through all the Primary results from 1912 through 2016. Trump’s total popular vote, according to wikipedia, was about 94 percent in all primaries combined. That is the 4th highest total ever achieved from 1912 on. The five highest totals are as follows: (again according to wikipedia) Reagan in 1984 – 99 percent. Woodrow Wilson in 1916 – 98.5 percent. George W. Bush in 2004 – 98 percent. Trump in 2016 – 94 percent. FDR in 1936 – 93 percent. Trump had higher primary vote totals than either FDR, O’bama, or Bill Clinton. I found that no incumbent who scored a vote total above 80 percent has ever lost. The highest losing prinary vote total was achieved in 1992. George H W. Bush received 73 percent of the primary vote and lost to Bill Clinton. So with all of that said, if Trump loses in 2020 he certainly will set a new record! Sure it could indeed happen. In fact Professor Allan Lichtman is predicting Trump will lose this year. Even Professor Norpoth gives his model a 9 percent chance of failure. However, with primary numbers the like of which Trump has garnered this year, I can certainly see why Professor Norpoth has come to the conclusion that he has.
Thanks to all for reading this very long comment through to the end!
Thoughts from other commentors are more than welcome!
Trump’s support is Overwhelming amongst the silent majority. Flyover country has a say in this election, the Electoral College. The way people are fleeing the Deep Blue D Cities, they’re gonna lose even more delegates in the coming years. #RedWave
Not sure the debate. Political scientist who predicted 25 of 27 elections using his model. Whatever you think of Trump. It’s a model that says Trump will win and this guy is usually right. Many are embarrassed to say to others they support Trump so when a pollster calls they say Biden or undecided but the vote Trump on Election Day. I believe this guy.
Followed your comment from 2016 and I am doing the same this time.
What ever system you have that works to get our President reelected….THANK YOU.
Shirley Cloyd
Oh my God!!
From everything i have read down this page I’m sure glad you are not my judge and jury.
I don’t want a president whose nice I want a President who can get the job done,.
We can have nice another time. He’s dealing with people who are not nice. If he has no back bone they will run over him. Just look at what he’s been through in three and a half years. And what he has gotten done
Any one else would have turned tail and run. I don’t want nice. I want results. He’s getting them.
You are brilliant ignoring the “emotional friends” , they are all Trump haters and not objective as you are!!!
“Predicting a Clinton win was considered a stretch at the time because he was pretty bad in his first term.”
LOL, ok. Predicting a Clinton win in 1996 was about as much a stretch as predicting the wetness of water.
Biden will win.
2020 MAGA all the way!!!!
I think Norpoth is wrong. In fact, the American University Professor Alan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted all of the past six elections, has predicted Joe Biden will win. I hope, with every fiber, of my being, Lichtman is correct. His record surpasses Norpoth’s record. Plus, Norpoth cannot use the primaries, as the basis of his analysis, during this unusual time.
Actually that professor picked Gore to win but uses the “Gore technically won” excuse to claim a perfect record based on 13 SUBJECTIVE parameters. Faulty at best.
I agree, particularly in respect to using the primaries as his basis for his decision. Trump had virtually no competition on the primary this year. Heck, in my state and in a lot of states the GOP wouldn’t even allow anyone to run against him.
This BLM rioting and looting has nothing to do with majority of problems that affects black people around the world and in America. The BLM’s rioting and looting are the campaign strategy of the Democratic party and its campaign headquarters (CNN) . These unrest will not affect Trump’s reelection bid as 99.99% of these rioters did not vote for Trump in 2016 . The economy was booming before COVID-19 hit. Trump did an excellent job prior to COVID-19. Shouting the loudest amounts to nothing and we saw it with Hillary and the fake news in 2016. Trump is winning 2020.
One factor not considered in this poling is the effects of mail in voting. Rework your numbers and consider if every person that died in a nursing home voted for Biden would the results change?
What most on the left don’t understand is that conservatives vote for the person who REPRESENTS the conservative policies we believe it. The left doesn’t even hide it anymore how far left they are going – sorry this country is not going that way despite what the liberal media activist tells you. They are also in complete denial if they think vast amounts of real conservatives would vote for Biden, Sanders, Clinton or Obama. Do I wish Trumps personality was different – yes. Would I attend a rally of his – no. Would I have a cup of coffee with him – doubt it. But do I believe in way more of his policies than the alternative – absolutely. Dems need to understand – I don’t have to “like” Trump, Romney, McCain or Bush to earn my vote. But on the other side I am so very glad that Americans can have their own opinions and am so eternally grateful for those that have sacrificed to get and keep those freedoms to form this imperfect republic.
The Russia hoax…the impeachment hoax…the dirty, unverifiable FISA warrant paid for by Hillary’s campaign to spy on Trump and his associates…the corruption and weaponization of our most valued institutions under Obama (the FBI, DOJ, CIA, State Department, IRS)…the violence in Democrat-run cities…will all work in Trump’s favor. Plus, Trump voters are harassed by the Left at work and in public so they are keeping their voting choices to themselves, and the polls don’t reflect their support. They will come out in droves to vote for Trump and prevent a puppet cadaver from becoming POTUS!
It’s sad that pple instead of accepting Trump as a guy who represents the American dream, they keep vying for socialist undemocratic tendencies that demonise democracy. Trump has been beaten many times but still got up which to me shld b a clear example to young pple around the world of the american dream of never giving up and to continue fighting. If u truly think he is bad ask yourself one question has he improved Ur wellbeing and that of Ur family if yes how is he then evil. I know Black pple will say he is racist am black but it’s only during Trump s presidency u got more employment opportunities and it’s only in Trump’ s presidency my country realised how corrupt democratic officials were. I also ask Black people to seek facts about themselves why are they broke and being left behind its simply because there work attitudes are low and they always want to find excuses for always failing to keep up. How come the Jews never use excuses but keep working hard and yet they have been the most tramatised race and pple in the world, but they currently hold 50% of richest pple the world and yet blacks who since the civil rights movement have not even achieved the core goal of the movement of becoming independent but instead are extremely more distructive in their own home towns.
How can you seriously believe that the most unpopular President in history is going to gain states where his approval rating is well below 50%? Even keeping the 16 states where his approval rating is below 50% would be a tremendous accomplishment. Only someone thoroughly brainwashed or in the business of brainwashing others would even suggest this nonsense.
Millennials for Trump! Can’t wait to vote.
Norpoth’s current prediction is riding on the electoral college and not much else. If he is correct, it will be further evidence to abolish that system which makes “your” vote useless.
In the 2000 & 1960 election which was not correctly predicted when The Primary Method was applied who won New Hampshire primary ?
Similar to other folks commenting, I’ve lived with a parent suffering from dementia for years. Joe Biden’s dementia is unmistakable to anyone who has witnessed such a condition up-close, and who is honest about it. So what is the plan of the Democratic Party/DNC? Can they cancel the debates, or do they aim to get them structured and managed in such a way as to continue disguising Biden’s state? It’s hard to imagine they can pull off such a stunt – even with staunch media allies. So, the illusion of Joe being fit for office will be dispelled by early October. There’s still plenty of voting to happen after that time window – and, as such, Helmut Norpoth’s modeling may prove correct yet again.
It all depends what side of the fence you’re on about whether Trump is popular or not. I think he’s doing great under the circumstances of the Democratic Party’s coup d’etat and political violence on the streets.
Thank you for this article. I wholeheartedly concur that the upcoming election will bring Trump once again toward his victory of becoming the President of the United States for the second term. It will not be close, but it will be way ahead that he will successfully win the next election. His opponent will fall behind in a huge and noticeably way giving Trump the Presidential Platform.
The damage has been done. Putin wanted to hurt us and he did. Very badly. Look at us now. Divided. A country broken into tribes of “liberals,” “racists,” “fascists,” “extremists,” “leftists,” “conservatives,” instead of the land of the United States of America. In just 4 years. Putin is a genius, but an evil genius. He has accomplished in 4 years what the Soviet Union couldn’t in over half a century.
I’m curious to know how the model accounts for the fact that there wasn’t a Republican primary, or was unopposed. First term presidents usually get the primary unopposed so I’m not sure there’s and historical precedence in this model for the liklihood of a one term president. I would be curious to know more though.
Hitler was a founding member of the National Socialist Party, you know the ones who were referred to as NAZI’s. The only reason they were considered right wing is they were against the further left Communists.
Left or right,Republican or Democrat, liberal or conservative. What is in a name? It is easy to slander anyone by tagging them on a hated side! Election verbiage is just smoke & mirrors. I truly believe it is the character and personal wants of the person elected to be president that is what makes and keeps our country the place where everybody wants to be.. Today we have a bad one! I can hardly wait ’till AMERICA says “YOUR FIRED”
I just drove from NY to NH, VT, CT, RI.. Not a single lawn sign or Car sticker supporting either candidate. Silent Vote is very loud & it favors Trump. I had predicted Trump 2016 from day one. In 2016 August, drove to upstate NY. Only saw anti Hillary lawn signs. It will be a landslide victory for Trump.
To Americans who think socialism is better than Capitalism, Please go and live in a socialist country without American Dollars for 2 years. You will realize the truth. But then who can explain a fool their folly.
The two elections the model missed were exceedingly close (1960 and 2000). And, some would argue, stolen.
I have voted liberal since I have had an informed awareness of politics and voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 (Trump and Gore make me want to Ralph!). Since then I have voted Democrat a few times, for Bernie who wasn’t really a Democrat, a few times, and the rest Green Party.
It is obvious that this two party system is completely rigged, owned and operated by the elite, so we really never have a solid choice. We are just ping-ponged back and forth between left and right administrations, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and everything just continues to degenerate, and our citizenry is helped to stay divided by a disgusting corporate media. Hasn’t some version of this been going on throughout history to all great societies? Except that now it is happening at warp speed. I don’t know if there is any hope except that everything and everyone is temporary.
In the meantime, I am going to make some personal history in that I will do one of those “never say nevers” and vote for a Republican, Donald Trump, no less. I have long had disdain for the Democratic Party and never paid much attention to the Republicans but I have been checking them out and find there is some resonance there for me, especially with Black Conservatives. I am sickened by the loss of our rights and the destruction of our economy via The Plandemic , but it is the BLM movement that has pushed me over the edge. Political correctness, Cancel Culture, White Guilt, White Privilege, Defund The Police, all make me want to hurl. To me, the Plandemic and BLM are both political ploys toward a very big and dark agenda and I feel like I’m living in the beginning of a true life version of “V for Vendetta”.
I want to retain all of the freedoms granted to all of us in the U.S. Constitution. I don’t want history wiped out. I don’t support censorship. TRUMP 2020!
This is a very long read and my “eyes” could not handle it. I would like to add that I am quite sure our President will win in November.
He is magnificent in every respect. I just about love him.
Any information on Senate and house elections?
[…] have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” Norpoth added during his interview with Stony Brook News. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable […]
Sir, I Pray that your predictions are correct. A landslide for Trump would be making his first term legitimate. Something that the Democrats and media tried to delegitimize . I am from Illinois , I would love to see this state vote for Trump too. I just have a feeling its possible, because we swing back and forth from Red to blue on Governors and Presidents. What do you think Sir?
[…] Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model shows President Trump has a 91-percent chance of winning re-election, according to his interview with Stony Brook […]
Interesting… but I would bet against him this year. I could see how this model (as simple as it is… only depending on NH results…) appears be as “accurate” as it is… which is 92% accurate on 27 trials… so that isn’t as good an endorsement of “the model” as it sounds like… If he misses this year… it’s still 89% accurate right??
Isn’t this kind of like predicting your next dice roll based on the last 27??. Of course the dice could be weighted… (which is what 45 will be saying when he looses…)
I think the only thing Trump has done right which is immensely good for our country is his alert to America China is much worse enemy than Soviet in the character and in the all scopes except military front. He could be right again if Biden is elected, US would speak Chinese in dozen years. So this danger alone may worth to put Trump again on presidency.
He did get the December 2019 UK elections right. He said there was an 81% chance that the conservatives would possess 352 seats to the labour’s 228 seats if I’m not mistaken. And correct me if I’m wrong but the conservatives did win and now possess 365 seats to the labour’s 203 seats. The predicted numbers are slightly off but the prediction itself of the conservatives winning turned out to be accurate. And Helmut is giving Trump a higher percentage (91%) of winning in a projected landslide against Biden.
Florida was number one for several weeks. We have a Trump serving Republican Governor.
Started using the model in 1992, but predicted elections since 1960. Sure.
The obvious media blitz against this President and blatant support by democratic leaders & RINO’s for violent protesters, defunding police and keeping Americans out of work has mainstream Americans completely in President Trump’s court. They fight against everything good, which typically means whatever President Trump Supports. The silent majority will gladly reelect President Trump. The democratic party has buried itself.
Yet Allan Lichtman who was a greater success rate of predicting Presidential election outcomes says nay to what Norpoth is suggesting here and Lichthman has been calling it since the days of Reagan.
To think New York is going to go for Trump I just dont buy it. This years Election is different from all others. I dont doubt the guy being correct in normal times but now everything is so crazy
Seems to be missing an option. Because I see 2 of the same candidate there. 2 old guys, propped up by parties, that have enacted bad policy and hurt many people, cant keep their hands to themselves, and offer the same thing with a different take on… some abortion?
And I also see more media ignoring the majority of eligible voters that stayed out of the 2016 election because of being sick of both these parties. Many of them that are right behind the Libertarians after the debacle that teams red and blue did on covid-19.
TL;DR… your math is bad, you need to show your work and use all the numbers.
If this country has to sustain then Trump should win. He is not perfect but everyone will realize that he is trying to help his country and he is patriotic. The left does not care about who crosses the borders they want immigration for all that will eventually bring down this country. I cannot think of any country that has so porus borders and provides assistance to illegal immigrants. This thing solely will be the reason for me and my friends to vote for Trump.
Have you seen NYC? Democrat governor and mayor turned it into a ghost town. To blame Trump is emotional and unrealistic. The Silent Majority will elect Trump. Hate does not win elections. In fact, your hate will only guarantee Americans are sick of it and Trump will win in a landslide
Hard to put much credence in a model that is based on primaries that occurred when Trump’s favorability was decent, the economy was in good shape and there was no pandemic yet. I might argue that the conditions on the ground have changed so dramatically that the data from the first 3 primaries are meaningless.
These comments are legitimately depressing. I have no love for creepy Biden and the Democratic party on the whole and am a big believer in the efficacy of capitalism over socialism, but only a half-wit (apparently our country has many) fails to see through the narcissistic and unintelligent man currently occupying the White House. He can barely read, has absolutely zero understanding of policy and how to operate a successful government, and is a habitual liar (that’s not me falling for what I also believe is a very biased MSM, it’s simply evaluating what the man says and does) with no ability to unify and lead this country. He would gladly shoot all of the pro-Trump commenters in this section without a second thought or ounce of remorse to save his own skin from some sort of downfall. It is again deeply depressing that this is not evident to a sizable amount of people in this country. Please let me again stress my distaste for laziness and socialism and the Democratic party, and my belief that Joe Biden is a cheap career politician with some very questionable behavior around women literally on camera- and how I fully intend any way to vote for him over the narcissistic moron in chief. (P.S. also a draft dodger with the gall to denigrate and demonize a man who actually served and was captured by the enemy. I knew from the beginning this situation was serious when there was no dent in his support after those comments, was not surprised he won, and would be more surprised but certainly not shocked if he won again.)
(P.P.S. any person who uses Bidens creepiness or doddering as a reason to vote for Trump looks especially ridiculous to us folks on neither side who can see that Trump’s behavior towards women & mental acuity are both worse than Bidens)
The same can be said for every election, his system is by design made to ignore everything except the statistics it does focus on and that is why it is one of the most perfect predators of the Presidency. What you call it’s weakness is exactly what makes it successful as a predictor.
The liberals underestimate how popular Trump actually is and how smart the American people are. We see what’s happening , it’s very clear what the democrats plan to do to our country and it isn’t good. Trump2020!
The dems are in charge of largest the city by city destruction in the history of our country. You would be a fool to think Biden will win. Patriots see and understand whats going on. And with Pelosi calling republicans enemies of the state. Its all finished for the dems. After the election, arrests and charges are in store for all the sedition committed by the leaders of antifa, blm and the dem party.
I hope those arrests are the “October surprise” 🙂
someone needs to tell this idiot that republicans didn’t hold a primary this season. this model is like a magic eight ball that rolled under a car seat and still spits out results. i’m well aware that everyone says but this time it’s different, that elections don’t change that much, that the incumbent has a surprising advantage no matter how much you hate his guts … but sometimes it’s different. as we approach the pinnacle of hyperpolarized politics, i think we’re approaching the end for a model that assumes your popularity with one party is a modest predictor of your popularity outside that party
so i’m just about to close the tab and the headline catches my eye. academics are famous for their collegiate demeanor, so with full acceptance that sometimes a cigar is just cigar, i’m going to point out that polite academic-speak for nutjob is maverick. it’s a lot like the coded language obituaries use for unpleasant or transgressive people. it’s one of those delightful insults you can say to someone’s face, because the target is typically a towering narcissist who takes it as a compliment while people snigger behind his back
This seems to focus on the enthusiasm of the candidate within their own party. This election will be the test of that.
30% of America is base Democratic – 30% of America is base Republican – the 40 % in the middle always decide who will be President.
Does anyone REALLY believe that 40% want lawless rioting , looting, insane demands for free single payer health care and free college, reparations to people who have NEVER been subject slavery, and reduced security by defunding the police?? Someone must pay for all that largesse and the 40% know it would be them.
Trump will be reelected by that 40% and we will have more civil unrest by the 30% that believes only government can solve problems.
The trouble is not in our stars but in ourselves.
Smartest comment so far.
Spot on.
Trump is a dictator want to be and a Putin puppet.
Mr. Norpoth, I believe you are 100% correct!! I am 83 yrs. old and have seen 14 presidents, so I’m not new to the games the “swamp” in DC plays. Trump supporters do not talk about their voting, and 99% of us are never caught watching CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC and only a small amount of Fox News, we only talk to each other. We also hang-up on any phone pollisters, DNC or RNC. We are very very private people. I have approx 500 friends from Maine to Hawaii, and ALL have my same views. I live 80 miles from DC in Virginia and have listened to their lying “Bull-shit”for all of my adult life! I even remember Tom Dewey winning?? in 1948, but Harry Truman sat in the Oval Office. As my wife and I have taken short trips this year to WV, PA, OH, and NC, SC, we have not seen one Biden yard sign, but hundreds of Trump/Pence signs and flags, my friends are reporting the same. I predict Trump will win 58 to 42 with 310-320 electoral votes. I am proud to belong to the 10-13% of his Secret voters, but to have admit I don’t care for his personality, but he does what he says, without the SWAMP’S approval, therefore he will WIN !!!!! Thankyou
I think there were a LOT of models that did an excellent job of predicting previous Presidential elections. Just pick the incumbent, who almost always dominates the primaries.
I will come back here and apologize or, more likely, chastise you for your arrogance.
My wife who has never voted in her life, and hates trump as a person is voting this year for trump. She has grown to dislike the left and their tactics. I believe the media has made it impossible to publicly support trump so the silent supporters are just waiting for November to get out and vote him in again.
There has never been a president like Trump and social media plays such an important role now. His past picks are simply not relevant these days.
Has the researcher used primary data to predict state level elections? That might help validate the model. I can’t believe he is right about Trump in 2020. This may well be his Donnybrook, IMO.
Interesting, Allan Lichtman has a different model but the same track record; this election is different than any before it, we’ll see if the extraordinary circumstances are a factor or not. Both models seem valid; Polls are only good for Popular Vote (Hillary did win 2% or 3.5m votes more than Trump), we’ll see this year. “May you live in interesting times…”
I’ve crunched the numbers too and agree. I used the polls vs actuals differences from the last election and also get a Trump landslide. I cant see Trump winning NY though – no matter how I crunch the numbers.
Two crazy caucuses and two primaries where people actually vote are the “primary” basis for your model? I think I’ll go vote against the Fascist anyway. Nice try.
Exactly what combo of states gets Trump to 362?
Assuming Trump wins everything he won in 2016, that means he has to flip some combo of these states to get 60 more Electoral Votes:
Hawaii (4)
California (55)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Illinois (20)
Minnesota (10)
Virginia (13)
Mass (11)
Rhode Island (4)
Connecticut (7)
New Jersey (14)
Delaware (3)
Maryland (10)
DC (3)
New York (29)
Vermont (3)
New Hampshire (4)
If he wins every state that Clinton won by less than 6 percentage points, that’s Virginia/Colorado/Maine (statewide, so 2) /Nevada/Minnesota/New Hampshire.
That is 44 votes. Which means he’ll need 16 more votes. What else would he win? Oregon, New Mexico, Delaware, and Connecticut? Or New Jersey and one of those states?
Seems unlikely.
POLLS ARE USELESS HERE, TRUMP WILL WIN …AGAIN!
That’s straight up bull.. I voted for this awful man because of dislike for Hillary. I now see what a incompetent, immoral, racist not to mention cruel person he is. Using the right wing religious element to enhance his power base. Not giving two rads about helping the average person. No I would never vote for him again and I know thete are plenty of people luke me out there who feel the same.
People have no idea how important their primary vote. I’ve told many they are letting a small percentage of voters pick their candidate for the November ballot when they don’t vote in the primary – they just don’t seem to get it, or don’t care.
If I have to go through 4 more years of hatred, name calling and childish tweets from the President of the USA I’m packing my bags.
RDR
Norpoth is correct. Trump will win in a LANDSLIDE.
I believe Trump will not only win the electoral college vote in a landslide, but he will also win a strong majority of the popular vote. When people see the rioting going on in our country, and the Democrat party’s refusal to condemn it, and even cheer it on in many cases, and the Democrat party’s support of “defunding the police”, I think a strong majority of Americans will say to themselves when they get in a polling booth (or cast a mail-in ballot), “Enough of that foolishness! I may not like Trump’s personality, but he does appear to love this country and do what is necessary to protect it!”, and cast their ballot for President Trump.
I think Trump will win based on the reality on the ground that I see. I see nobody defecting from Trump and he has all the momentum. Biden has no momentum. Justthat hate of trump has some momentum but that’s not going to be enough. I see, Trump 2020!
Trump will trounce Biden. It will be almmost as large of a landslide victory as Reagan over Mondale.
I wonder if Prof. Norpoth has ever spoken with Prof. Lichtman? Mr. Lichtman has accurately predicted the presidential winner since 1980 (longer than Mr. Norpoth). And he predicts a Biden victory. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html
This is completely opposite for what Nate Silver predicts on fivethrityeight.com.
See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html
Glad to hear this prediction. Kay
Trump has been right on a lot of issues, especially putting America first and supporting our law enforcement along with protecting the unborn. Biden can’t even formulate a cognitive sentence.
His response to the virus was exactly what Fauci and the CDC recommended each step of the way. In fact he was ridiculed by the left with every decision and called a xenophobe. Social unrest is 100% to be blamed on the states and cities that allow it…. all democrat run. The media amps up false narratives and the morons that fall for it blame the president. He beat Hillary by a landslide in the electoral college. The only reason for the economy sliding is because the democrat states are forcing shutdowns then blaming Trump for it. Red states are striving and the economy is getting better despite the virus. It has recovered far more than expected since the start and we will see a great America once he’s re-elected.
I agree. Too many liberals are attacking Trump because he “killed” thousands of Americans under the notion that it was he who ordered the late shutdowns. Trump issued orders to the State to handle the coronavirus. The biggest mistake he made was to give liberal governors the power to handle this pandemic.
The whole idea of blaming Trump for the mistakes of liberal leaders is a huge issue in liberal hivemind media.
For all those who say ..but what about..re read the article….note this passage.
“Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection”.
No matter how many experts you bring to trial. No matter how much evidence you display, there will always be an outlier. There will always be someone who looks up at the blue sky and assures you that it is orange with orange stripes. Once this election is over, and the results are as every single learned scholar predicts – a Biden victory for the planet and for humanity, Mr. Norpoth (whoever he is) will fade away and will never be heard from again.
Everyone (with numerically insignificant exceptions) who believes Trump is going to lose lives in a major metro area.
These people are under the misconception that everyone thinks the way they do, largely because the media presents the urban viewpoint exclusively.
The reality is that Trump is widely and wildly popular. I have driven across what most coast-dwellers refer to as “flyover land,” and I assure you, Democrats will be handed a crushing, and ultimately fatal defeat in November.
Mark my words.
I. The virus is not Trump’s fault nor is the response by blue states on lock downs and economic suicide hurting their own people.
2. The riots are all far left democrats at work and voters see the leftist news media covering for them while their personal property is being destroyed by domestic terrorist to influence the election by using fear.
3. Democrats don’t have a chance as more of their elected candidates side with Republicans because of the violence perpetrated by the left on legal citizens. The party is dying very quickly. Trump wins by a landslide on LAW and ORDER and economic recovery!
Although I agree with Professor Norpoth, it is for different reasons. The Democrats once again picked an awful candidate as they did with Hillary. While Hillary was much more unlikable than Biden, no one can say with a straight face that Biden is competent. The Democrats continue to think Americans are stupid. The people of America see through this and will overwhelmingly choose Donald Trump.
All these trump haters and never trumpers , get their information from cnn msnbc and you tube reporters , Washington post NY Times , these news outlets don’t give the facts and hide the truth , and mislead their viewers ,their viewers , believe anything and every BS storie there is about the greatest president in US history , STOP ? FALLING FOR THE BANANA IN THE TAIL PIPE !!!!! I see how they get these ppl to believe the BS , they use the Jedi mind trick on them , , Trump will kill it this election , keep ur eyes on the streets , the polls the opinions journalist dosent mean nothing , I believe also Trump May turn NY red , god bless my president and god bless America , the greatest country in the world !!!!
All these trump haters and never trumpers , get their information from cnn msnbc and you tube reporters , Washington post NY Times , these news outlets don’t give the facts and hide the truth , and mislead their viewers ,their viewers , believe anything and every BS storie there is about the greatest president in US history , STOP ? FALLING FOR THE BANANA IN THE TAIL PIPE !!!!! I see how they get these ppl to believe the BS , they use the Jedi mind trick on them , , Trump will kill it this election , keep ur eyes on the streets , the polls the opinions of the journalist dosent mean nothing , I believe also Trump May turn NY red , god bless my president and god bless America , the greatest country in the world !!!!
I New he would win from the start. He is the best thing that has happened to our country in many decades!!!
Go Trump!!! Keep doing your job! Stay the course..you are more than a conqueror.
The model is based on what has happened and math straight up. Polling and sentiments don’t matter. Apparently you didn’t read the well explained article.
He thought Nixon would bet JFK and Gore would win too. He also can’t have it both ways with his Biden will lose because he lost New Hampshire. Obama lost New Hampshire and still won.
I’m an American who has lived in Australia for 52 years. I voted for Trump and will again. Before Trump I voted Democrat. It is so refreshing NOT to have a politician in the White House. And a President who DOES WHAT HE SAYS HE WILL DO!!
watched DNC AND RNC on CSPAN. After the conventions a large number of Democrat voters called in changing to Trump based on accomplishments, foreign policy and safety
A lot of comments here seem to misunderstand what a model is. It is not a recreation of reality that includes every conceivable variable down to the relative humidity in Concord on the night of the NH primary.
A model’s power or value comes from leveraging a few variables to make accurate predictions. The more it ignores (while still being accurate) the better it can be said to be.
When we say, “Norpoth is ignoring so many facts”… that is a compliment. He was clever enough to produce a model that seems fairly accurate based on a few variable while ignoring polling and opinion data that everyone else seems to have a fetish for.
If after near 4 years of seeing Donald Trump and his administration in action, the American electorate favors him, the American experiment in democracy is finished. “Hail the Great Leader! Hail the Great Leader!” A Great Leader who wants to be a strong man, but doesn’t have the courage, intellect, or knowledge.
Judging by the following comments, Americans have two widely differing opinions of Trump, Biden, and recent US history. Separate facts. Sad.
But this professor has neglected to take into his estimations is that for the first time in the history of our country a man who hopes to become dictator is in the running and that changes things because the Democrats although uncertain about who they wanted to run know that throw up will be a better candidate than Trump to safeguard our republic.
Thank God for our forefathers, The Electoral College of Delegates. 1781. “You can’t trust the popular vote.” Could you ever imagine Hillary Clinton president?
[…] Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model shows President Trump has a 91-percent chance of winning re-election, according to his interview with Stony Brook […]
Trump is a very mean person. He doesn’t even know Kamala Harris and already spit on her. He is destroying all the good Obama did for environment and healthcare. At this moment millions of proud americans are whitout health coverage thanks to him. Good job? Another 4 years?? Not for me…
The electoral college prevents 3 counties from determining everything for the other 3138 counties in the USA. Coincidentally, those 3 counties have the highest homeless, crime, and jobless rates in the country.
3 highest populated counties in the US – (note, NYC is made up of 5 counties on its own)
# 1 – Los Angeles County
# 2 – Cook County, Illinois
#3 – Harris County, Texas (Fun fact, somehow Texas also has the 2nd least populated county in the US, with 134 residents.)
Highest Homeless counties in the USA
#1 – NYC (5 counties in one)
#2 – Los Angeles County
#3 – Seattle / King County
Crime Rate – I didn’t know if I should look at violent crime rate, or just murders per year, or what, I went with Cities by Violent crime rate, which equals violent crimes per 1000 residents.
#1 – Detroit, Michigan
#2 – Memphis, TN
#3 – Birmingham, AL
#21 – Rockford, IL, but that’s a ways out of Chicago
#33 – Compton, CA in LA County. There’s a hit for one of our counties.
If you want to go on raw crime numbers, of course the most populated areas are going to have the most crimes. That’s like, duh.
Finally, Jobless Counties. There is no real good way to look at it. LA, Chicago, NYC, Orlando, Las Vegas, Atlantic City. Lots of touristy cities got hit hard. Houston escapes this one. They don’t have as much tourism down there. Its hard to show rates or raw numbers because they fluctuate so much week by week, month by month. Suffice to say that LA and Chicago areas are hit hard. But they are not traditionally amongst the highest in percentage wise. Bakersfield, in one county over from LA, has a lot of jobless issues per a list from 2018 I saw. But the percentages were not in the top 50 counties in May 2018 for any of the biggest 3 counties.
So LA was right twice, none of them were anywhere inside the top 20 for violent crime rates, and right now big tourist cities are suffering for unemployment so Chicago is one of the towns hit, though not as badly as some others. Congrats. You tried.
Norpoth’s dispassion, however essential to his profession, is depressing as hell in the case of Donald Trump. He’s not “different” in the manner Obama was or Hilary Clinton would have been. He’s a narcissistic low-life, rich white trash, a rotting pile of petty grievances who lies like no previous occupant of the White House and has no real love for anyone, least of all the everyday supporters who couldn’t afford to stay at his hotels and would never be considered for membership in one of his golf clubs. Re-electing him could very well lead to our great country becoming more like Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian oligarchy. He is the antithesis of what my blue-collar, ex-Marine father taught me a good man should be. He is our Founders’ worst fear. He will kill the liberal idea that has made a truly great America a goal within reach. Norpoth may be, right, but dear God, let him not be this time.
I think he’s right, I don’t want him to be, but I believe he is. The democrats have forgotten history, very recent and painful history… Hillary was the one, Trump had no chance against her, it was impossible… and we all know how that turned out. It’s not about how excited people are about Trump, it’s how so many people are NOT excited about Joe Biden… In gerrymandered America, 60,000,000 will determine the future of 350,000,000; The electoral college needs to be abolished. Anyway, rock the vote whatever your party, but if you’re expecting a Biden win, you might want to temper your expectations.
I will vote for other guy! Not Trump for sure!!
I am an independent . While most Americans agree with the statement BLM many are souring to their politics, threats and unrelenting hard core violence Polls show 60 percent of Americans on both sides of the aisle disapprove of the violence being heralded by the hard left. The Democratic Party had their moment on a national stage to Categorically condemn it but that moment has passed . They even insinuated that if Biden is not elected things would get worse. This is tantamount to political extortion and a form of terrorism. ( look that word up in the dictionary before you disagree) Their strategists know the error of their ways and are attempting to speak out of both sides of their mouth now , trying to placate the hard left while offering weak statements condemning the violence. Too little too late. Trump will win by a landslide losing only closed states like California and New York. The Democratic Party of 2020 will remembered in history more as the party of Violence then the party of Justice.
He’s from Texas. There goes your answer.
I am democrat. The party has gone so far left it’s pushing people out. The article was right the party should Of pushed someone right off the start, that’s not ultra progressive. Donald trump has my vote over Biden.
Trump is an egotistical ass, his own worst enemy, and never learns from past mistakes. And, he’ll be ten times a better President than Biden.
I voted for Trump in 2016.
I work for the Federal Government and, until recently, reported directly to the executive.
I have not been “in the room” with the man, but I know with absolute certainty he has ignored, and simply not read, high-value intelligence. He’s has engineered division and weakened us to a level we’ve not known since Leon Wood’s “army of 100,000” in 1917.
No Trump supported has read “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” for two reasons: First, the Trumpist contempt for literacy. Second, 1935 Hitler and 2020 Trump share obvious and undeniable characteristics. Always campaigning, dividing the electorate, encouraging strongman support groups, and requiring a “loyalty oath”.
If anyone questions the “loyalty oath”, they are dead wrong. My former director, a lifelong Republican and former Bush appointee, refused and is now back in private practice.
Yes! America can’t afford lefties. Democrats is the party with destructive politicians on their ultra left wing, so called political correctness, with open borders for illegal immigrants. To those who support all of these crazy stuff that you see people will follow you? Are they nuts. No one wants ruined own house. Trump must win. The leftists must be vanished from American’s political landscape. By the way some European countries love socialism in their home, so the leftists, the media, the Hollywood as well as most college professors are free to go over there or toward Canada and practice own philosophy. Moreover, I would recommend many of them to go to the countries of the 3D world. I’m perfectly sure they will win there as they did for decades of their reign in American inner cities.
Hallelujah. Pass the bollot.
[…] Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University’s Department of Political Science, is the creator of the “Primary Model,” which the university says has correctly predicted five of the last six elections since […]
Michael Moore who -refitted aTrump win in 2016 has predicted he will win again. The problem for the Dems is first they pick Hillary and now two time loser Biden
They make it easy for the Republicans.
Trump is not a nice person but he has at least kept his promises and unlike Obama when he draws a redline..people don’t cross it
Norpoth is right on target. Biden is just too much like Hillary. Not tied to any issues or agenda, and simply plan B to Trump.
Right now it is just another theory but man oh man do I hope he is correct. I am going to love watching the liberals meltdown on election night as Trump wins more and more states.
Wonder if any numbers have moved after another 3 weeks of violence being committed by democrats in democrat controlled cities being cheered on by democrat politicians and mis-characterized by the democrats stenographers in the media as peaceful protests.
You are ignoring the facts. Norpoth has a mathematical equation. All you have is your Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Blacks are learning that Dems insisted on hanging on to human bondage which a Republican president had to end with the death of 600,000 mostly white boys; that the KKK was exclusively Democrats; that the 1964 Civil Rights Act would have failed if not for Republicans because Dems filibustered; same with 1965 voting rights act; and 25 million little black babies have been killed because Planned Parenthood (founded by anti black eugenics proponent) with exclusive support from Democrats, targets black communities intentionally. They make up 13 percent of population but 40 percent of abortions. The black vote will put Trump over the line as they realize the Democratic Party has historically and currently created more death for blacks than any institution in American history. It’s about time they woke up.
Of course President Trump is going to win! Biden can hardly read from a teleprompter. The Democrats picked the wrong candidate! Should have been Warren.
Because the democrats have kept our economy closed for so long, it is impossible for it to recover by November even if everything opened and ran as normal today.
I’ve seen so many walk always it’s been amazing to see. What was meant to cripple our country has backfired and brought so many people to pay attention. They are now doing their own research and finding out the facts. Trump will win and soon after we will begin promoting the next candidate that can withstand and overcome the chaos. Trump 2020
Yes, the Republicans held a primary. Trump was on the ballot and was unopposed. I voted for him in WI. Norpath’s point is that Trump voters turned out in record numbers to vote for a candidate who was unopposed. That means voter enthusiasm. Your reading skills are not very good. You clearly missed seeing the GOP side of the primary ballot too. Perhaps you are too blinded by your hatred of Trump to see what the rest of us see clearly. BTW, I too am a former Dem. I wouldn’t vote for any of them now.
I’m also a Democrat and I’m voting for TRUMP! It’s amazing how blind our party is, sad actually. Imagine hating someone so much you’re unwilling to look at facts. TRUMP 2020 ??
Regardless of who wins, I agree that disagreement within the Democratic party is not a healthy thing at all. Knowing what they were up against, Democrats should have united behind one candidate. Sanders supporters, for instance, may not be all that motivated to vote for Biden. However, all is not lost yet for the Democrats. All Democratic voters can still rally behind the Democratic nominee, whom ever he may be, just to beat Trump. But for this to happen, the motivation for a Trump defeat has to be really high. I am sure if Republicans can rally behind Trump in 2016, Democrats too can easily do so this time.
25 out of 27 is amazing results and this will be 26/28 for the win. IMO we should make it so presidents can keep running every term !!! ?? = trump
If you don’t make this prediction . You become irrelevant. If you predicted the other way you get no attention. your floor stands out right away you’re basing how Joe biden’s going to do in a general election against Donald Trump in New Hampshire is just ludicrous. Predicting Trump winning the 2016 election was nothing special. You had a black president leaving office Donald Trump with the answer to a black president the country was tired of the Clinton name Russia was interfering with the elections doesn’t take brain surgery to figure out who is going to win in the electoral college is a joke! It should be abolished and you’re doing and saying exactly what Trump wants you to if you go against Trump Tweety Trump will then attack you so you make it easy I will bet you $100,000 that your electoral college number is not even close trunk they steal the election but he will lose the send it then he will be impeached I predicted every president since Jimmy Carter. I also don’t see your system anywhere and a lot of the fact that you’re basing on do not apply. my voice doesn’t matter people will believe what they want to believe you’re afraid of trump like everybody else has he’s a psychopath a true sociopath! you better pray to whatever God you believe in Trump loses cuz if you think this country will stand for him winning there will be a riot in every city every day until the next election. You get a lot of really simple-minded comments and praise I think that’s why you do it I also think that’s why you made the prediction that what you did you have a 50 + 50 chance. and you can always fall back and say I was only wrong three times.
For all those commenting….it’s about math that cannot be argued or reasoned with. Sure it’s emotional and WE WANT to look at things we don’t understand which leads to US wanting to add to the confusion.
Sit back, be patriotic and VOTE on November 3rd! See you at the voting booth with Hand Sanitizer, 6 feet apart and a Mask!
Biden’s just an awful choice. And by awful I mean WAY worse than Hillary. The minute he called black people monolithic and gloated about working with segregationists to push for racist things like busing segregation and mass incarceration of us, I knew there’s no way in hell that I can vote for him. I wasn’t going to vote for Trump either until I’ve researched the many good things he’s done for us like opportunity zones, long-term HBCU funding, and prison reform to name a few things. Prison reform for me is especially personal. My brother was sent to prison for 45 years simply because he was black and had weed. Biden’s racist crime bill is why he was locked up. But thanks to Trump’s prison reform, he’s free. I mean I get that people shouldn’t break laws but to get 45 years in prison for a non offense crime is ridiculous. And it’s well known that black people are disproportionately targeted. I have been a Democrat for much of my life but I feel if I don’t vote for Trump and reward him for this, it will send a message that Democrats don’t have to earn our votes. They can continue taking us for granted because they’ll know there’s nothing the republicans can do to win over us. There were plenty of good Democrat candidates. I especially liked Bernie and Cory Booker but the DNC had to pick the racist Dixiecrat to be the nominee.
This doesn’t factor in the postal debacle that will occur with the new universal mail ballots. Whoever loses is going to cry fowl play.
In order to vote for a Democrat you must be ok with ANTIFA and the riots. Not one Democrat has stood up to this insanity instead calling for defunding the police. Now with Pelosi getting her hair done and then blaming the owner, well the American people are not stupid. President Trump will win one a landslide.
Obviously a MAJOR LANDSLIDE for DJ Trump, won’t even be close and very likely NY will turn RED in 2020, Record DOW profits seal the deaL easily and who cares about the whole communist west coast trifecta of wash, caLi, and oregon where they brag about burning stacks of Holy Bibles, as they bow only to worship communism. We can tell u Ohio be a VERY e z win for DJ Trump, the silly dems vp pick only seals their fate, classic case of picking the WRONG vp , the curse of J mcCain and that silly woman from alaska , repeats itself., flash forward to 2020, Joe picked the wrong color for vp, and has thus, alienated all his white voters who will obviously voted against him, his ancient age and poor health makes his vp SCARE to the bone, to consider her carrying the atomic briefcase !!!
———-Todd & Cora
ohio st Univ
I don’t think anyone should take this racists opinion seriously. NY going Red? You are absolutely joking. Texas has a better chance of going Blue than of NY going Red. Get a clue.
wow, he predicted the last 6 elections correctly……. let’s see, 3 times an incumbent won. and incumbent never lost. incumbents almost always win.. 2008 changed parties with horrible economy (and barack very popular)… 2000 was essentially a tie and the republican supreme court decided it. and 2016 trump lost the popular vote handily………. doesn’t seem that impressive. incumbent plus state of economy gets you close to perfect…….. in terms of incumbent running in primaries, you might as well just say “incumbent”. i guess ted kennedy/carter and maybe reagan/ford would support the professors model
This a contrarian prediction with surprising results. If this model is right again, then the professor will be in high demand as a political consultant.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins in a landslide. Biden’s problem for me is his old age and questionable health and his VP. I’m a Democrat and always have been but I will not be voting for Biden because a Biden win would create a national security threat (read below). Honestly I’m not motivated to vote at all.
I like Biden as a person. However, he’s too old and sick to be president. He’s had two brain surgeries in his life to treat leaking brain arteries—a condition that is known to cause brain damage in most survivors. He also has atrial fibrillation which can cause strokes, which may explain his inability to speak incoherently. These are serious illnesses for anyone aspiring to be president. The stress that kind of job can bring will destroy him. And if he weren’t sick, he would agree to take a dementia test. Instead he refuses to even though there’s speculation that he has dementia. I’m sorry but if you have nothing to hide, be transparent. Take the test. That’s all I want to see to settle my nerves.
Also I really do think a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala. Biden has even hinted that he’ll step down once elected and let Kamala be president. I do not think she’s up for the job. And I don’t like the fact that she’s a far left extremist with very little political experience. She’s advocated for open borders, ending ice, ending fracking, gun confiscation, free healthcare for illegals, ending private health insurance, etc. It’s insane. I also don’t like the fact that she has a history of being an abusive prosecutor. She’s exactly the opposite of what we need during this era of police brutality. Ignoring evidence while a man is on death row is just heartless.
I want to see a female president but not this way. I want the first female president to win the presidency on her own. Anything less is a spit in the face of women’s progress. Also, I don’t think America is ready for a female president now. This world is messed up…let’s be honest. Many middle east muslim men are very misogynist. Their culture requires women to cover up and not drive by themselves. But we still have to do diplomatic work with them. I guarantee you that a Kamala president has the potential to destabilize the middle east. A Kamala presidency will be used by ISIS, Al Queda, and other misogynist terrorist groups to recruit disgruntled conservative Muslim men in response to a foreign woman telling them what to do. I don’t think making a political statement in the USA is worth the potential security threats overseas. First let’s help make the middle east strong and stable, and then let’s elect a female president.
I keep hearing this “every Trump supporter I know is vocal about it” stuff from pundits and their subscribers. You probably don’t know as many Trump supporters as there actually are!
I would NEVER speak out about my support of the president, but I’m absolutely a fan of his work and will be voting for him in November. USA! 🙂
Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys model is interesting. It predicted Trump in 2016. It predicts Biden this time. Lichtman uses subjective Keys. He comes up with 7 false answers, thereby declaring it for the opposition party. Looking at his key, I only come up with 5 false answers, and 1 of those is ambiguous. So I believe his model is correct, but Lichtman’s application is wrong. Trump 2020 using both models.
Two matters that may change everything. 1) The Media’s extreme, and slyly determined effort to lead voters towards Biden and away from Trump especially several all important states. (PA, MI, WI, OH, NC,FL) 2) Mail-in voting. Fraud goes up 100X. Mostly in big cities. Dems control big cities. Voting should be done as described in SB Shine’s recent book, ‘Pain Awaits.’ A book of tough/needed solutions for the US.
They laughed when they said he could win in 2016, don’t count your chickens…
According to the article, he’s basing the win for Trump solely with mathematics not popularity or character of the man. And giving a track record such as his, the Dems need to sit up and take notice. He’s basically telling them where they went wrong and it’s too late to fix it now. Sayonara Mr. Biden ?
Joe Biden won the NC primary ! He got 43% of the vote…Sanders came second with ONLY 23%. That was the beginning of his victories….so if he counts NC…Biden is IN.
Does the fact that Trump had no real challenge in the primaries and that Covid-19 interrupted the Biden campaign and resulted in the other Democratic candidates dropping out and endorsing Biden after South Carolina skew those statistics in anyway?
Trump is going to win in a landslide.
He’s right y’all, Trump is heading to a victory, so y’all need to get out your seats and vote so that he doesn’t get it.
The support for Trump is deep and wide. The numbers don’t lie. Thank you for your hard work and dedication to pure math. Pure truth. ✌
This article provides Terrific insight. Stand by for heavy rolls.
I am so entertained by these comments! The article was written Aug 3rd. Today is Sept 10th. On Sept 9th, it was leaked by Bob Woodward that 45 intentionally downplayed and lied to us about how deadly COVID-19 is. In fact, in the audio he states he likes doing it, to keep the Stock Market high and the economy healthy. Due to his reckless behavior and lied, close to 200,000 have died. He is a murderer. How can any of you possibly be ok with that? Oh! And that scandal with Russian interference during the 2016 election? You Trump fans and the brainwashed administration was forced by his hands and threats to cover up that intelligence information and make it look like China was involved. Guess what, messing up with intelligence info is Treason, which makes you an enemy of the state. One other thing, he’s a rapist, as well as pedophile, putting his hands on under age girls at Miss Teen USA pageants, again documented. He’s doing everything he possibly can to hide his tax records and financial records. Again, illegal. Time, after time, He has shown his lack of character, lack of integrity, he is a tryrant & fascist. Who is in his back pocket? Russia. I think I’ve made my point.
Can we see the model? Would be interesting to see it being applied.
Please do it both ways. The way you have always doMe it and the way you did it this time. Does it come out the same?
I don’t know about a landslide but I hope Trump does win. Democrats are doing everything they can to defeat Trump even cheating with mail-in voting (no need for mail- in voting according to Dr Fauci). Twitter has recently chosen to be an accomplice with the Democrats by refusing to allow Trump and only Trump to declare an early victory. So we’ll have to see how things play out and if Democrats can chest their way to a victory. But we need to get out and vote if we want Trump to win. Complacency will be our downfall.
Biden is not an option. He’s too weak to lead. He’s been in his basement instead of leading during the coronavirus. He’s sided with rioters by caving into their demands that he’ll take money away from the police which is absolutely reckless. All these anti-cop riots and shootings of black men began when Biden was VP, and he did nothing about it. Trump inherited the mess from Biden just like he inherited ISIS from Biden. I don’t understand how anyone can vote for Biden; it’s perplexing. The man destabilized the middle east by pushing for war in Iraq as senator and as chair of the Senate foreign relations committee knowing full well there weren’t WMDs in Iraq. He then as VP took troops out of Iraq too early which allowed ISIS to gain territory that Trump has successfully undone. Biden didn’t even want to go after Bin Laden when he was VP. Good thing Obama ignored him! Joe simply lacks the judgement to make good decisions and has proven it time and time again. If he wins, I expect the chaos on the streets to worsen and wars and desirability to increase.
The RAW reality right now is people want PEACE (no violent protesters), and law and order. Decrease violence esp protesters who ransacked Black-owned and Hispanic owned businesses in California. That will not work when you defund the police. Perfect SAD example is Portland, Oregon = LAWLESS Country. Everyone is buying guns for protection, higher percentage of Hispanics voting for Trump because of their conservatism and a lot have businesses. Biden has massive tax cuts if he is elected, BAD IDEA DURING THIS TIME. Democrat elect mixed with covid economics, middle income will suffer the most on top of so many restaurants, businesses already closing.
I also have a mathematical model based on actual primary results tallies. That model has correctly predicted presidential results since 2004. I factored in percentages to take away from Biden on Bernie’s anti Biden numbers and added a certain percentage to Trump to account for the so called shy Trump supporters and those who did not bother to vote in the primaries since it was a given the Trump would win the primaries.
My prediction comes up with 274 Biden and 168 Trump. This prediction is not affected by polls . It is obvious the Democratic base is driven by an anti Trump message as well as BLM movement so voter turn out will surpass 2016. Almost all of Trump’s supporters already came out 2016 so there is nothing to counter the new Democrat voters. Anyone predicting a landslide is either daydreaming or needs to be schooled in mathematics.
Scared to lose arent you? The inflated polls for Biden dont reassure you? That’s why you still try to convince voters of the corona, social unrest BS you guys keep on selling but no one is buying. President Trump is getting more support as the election day comes near. Just look at the enthusiasm and energy with us Trumpers, For Hiden Biden it’s a snore fest, your Antifa and BLM thugs harassing potential voters have already flipped to Trump. You think people are stupid like you?
We are a LatinX family. I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, neither my husband nor brother. This ejection, all 3 of us are voting in-person for law and order. Plus, Trump will help remediate the economy once again.
The dem party has gone too radical. Not recognizable.
A lot of people hate Trump but they don’t know why. They just want to oppose authority and are swept in groupthink against the president. Biden has no supporters. The people voting for him would vote for a ham sandwich against Trump; their standards are low. It’s a very reckless and peurile stance to take. All I have to say is if people hate Trump but don’t know why they should vote for Biden (without mentioning Trump), then they probably shouldn’t be voting. Blinded by hatred blinds judgement. Biden has a reputation of destabilizing parts of the world and pushing for wars. Most certainly he will drag us into another war or resurrect ISIS. His relationship with communist China is also worrisome. If people want to risk that and still vote for the near 80 year old merely because he’s not Trump, then they deserve what they’ll get.
It is now September 2020 and are your predictions of Trumps victory still in the 90% range?
1.Usmca
2. Pimped slapped Iran
3. Exposed the deep state
4. Exposed media bias
5. Installed 2 supreme Court Justice
6. Broke every record in the economy
7. Funded black colleges
8. Record jobs for black folks
9. Challenged China
10. Built 250 miles of boarder wall.
I can come up with 30 more things without even thinking it through…
Facts can be skewed, polls are just that, polls. Even his admissions of being wrong atleast two times proves how miscalculations of the American will of voting for their candidate may derive. Many factors must enlign towards the victor. Populists vote, weather, pandemic, voter intimidation, work, lack of voting polls, and most importantly who is in charge of the state elections. All this professor may of done, is gave another false outlook. What am I to say? Agree or disagree? I simply say wait until December and the electoral college will give us the winner.
This is one of the most unique election cycles in history. We have an absolute lunatic in office, about 50 different scandals per month, a rise in authoritarianism, the shift of the Republican party to a “pro trump” party, an insane amount of primary candidates, the first black female running mate, two of the oldest presidential candidates, and thats before we get to the second wave of the civil rights movement, massive California fires and a global pandemic. To not consider anything past S.C when no candidate in history has placed out of the top 2 in the first 2 primaries and gone on to win the nom before Biden is lunacy. It’s bad math, it’s bad science. And the dude scoffs at it like it’s not the fundamentals of variable calculations.
[…] Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump “a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide,” the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release. […]
[…] Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump “a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide,” the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release. […]
I can’t imagine voters want to defund the police. That was Biden’s biggest blunder in my opinion—when he said he would take funding away from the police and reallocate it elsewhere. We’ll see what happens in November. Norpoth isn’t partisan as many in this comment section claim. I remember him predicting an Obama win on 2012 even though Romney was leading early on.
[…] Stony Brook University – Professor Norpoth described the focus on primaries as the key difference between his model and others. […]
[…] Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump “a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide,” the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release. […]
Iam praying that Trump will win it scares me to think that Joe could be president. He doesn’t know where he’s at most of the time. And the Democratics are way out in left field. Trump 2020
Why is Trump cutting funding to Social Security, Medicare, Medicard?could be you; defund you destroy?
He incrested funding to D.O.D, Veterans Affairs just to divert monies to his wall.
He degraded our M.I.A., P.O.W., and Military as suckers and losers.
Cut funding to E.P.A.I could go on,but this is just starters.
M.A.G
Very interesting. I should like Trump to continue his Presidency for he has certainly livened up the general state of poltics in the US for many if not most systems of poltical parties become moribundover time.
I see about the same results – no one trusts any poll – they know they are controlled by the Democrats. We lived in Ohio in 2016 – Hillary was supposed to cruise to an easy win there by 5% or more – she LOST by 8%. I see 327 electoral votes – an easy win for Trump, AND he’ll win the popular vote as well. The mass cheated expected in the states with harvested ballots won’t matter – they are almost all blue anyway. I have never seen people so angry as they are now and the Supreme Court situation feeds this anger. People are fed up with Democratic corruption, mob violence, COVID shutdowns in Dem states, etc. They are itching to get to the polls.
Constitution??? Not a Nice man???
The DEMS have torn up the constitution hundreds of times and I don’t vote for a candidate because they are nice. I vote based on promises and accomplishments and TRUMP has accomplished everything he promised! Economy, Jobs, conservative judges, the Wall etc etc
District of Columbia v Heller.
That’s why I’m voting for Trump and republicans. Democrats have tried getting rid of the second amendment. Look into the Supreme Court case above. All liberal justices voted to get rid of our right to bear arms as we know it. We need constitutionalist judges and republicans are the only ones to provide it.
So I hope this model is correct. If not, I don’t know if there will be an America anymore after 2020.
Very glad to know you Professor.
I am a heavy fan of President Trump, but even so, I was surprised to read your analysis because most polls say otherwise. But when you included mathematics in your prediction and as you see ” mathematics has no inclination but precision” I do expect your model will prove ” CORRECT” .
I am really hoping Trump will win the presidential election once again .
That is my dream.
Hasoloan Sinaga.
(An Indonesian citizen)
Thank you, I do feel a little better since that other election prediction gentleman said other wise. Thank you
Many say Trump has no strategy.
First he allows fracking and revives the oil industry in this country.
Result more jobs and because the amount of oil is substantial he can keep oil prices low.
Result by keeping oil prices low he has taken away the great money weapon from Iran and Russia. And controlling Iran with sanctions and oil export China has to spend more time and expenses looking for the oil they need.
Result less money for weapons and payment to terrorist groups looking to do harm to US interests and those of their allies.
The Russian collusion is the cat calling the kettle black. The Dems are the ones colluding with Russia and trying to switch the blame.
With what Trump has done to Russia and China do you think they would support 4 more years of Trump.
And they wanted Clinton along. The Russians have the goods on the Clintons. Bill has had some nefarious dealings once he left office. And Hillary because her disregard of protocol exposed government exposed her blackberry on a diplomatic trip to Moscow. Her state department secret correspondence with Ambassador Stevens in Libya exposed his travel plans and safe houses and his patch work security in the presence of Hilary’s neglect and choice not to make the issue a priority alert. The Russians gave that info to the parties that wished to harm the US and they could always use that info of exposing her in the future – especially if she was president.
[…] Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump […]
This professor is correct.
[…] Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump […]
I’m 39 years old, never voted in my life because I never cared about politics. I work hard and support my family. After watching cities allow riots and crime, and watching these liberals cry and whine, I’m over it. I’ve registered and am voting for trump. There are A LOT of people like me. Trump will win because you whiny liberals wanted to act like spoiled brats.
Beautiful work!
Can’t wait to call our President, President Trump again. Sorry, “sorry” liberals.
Mathematics is ABSOLUTE; or is it?
Will HATRED replace T R U T H with the American people?
Will the American people vote for lawlessness, violence, riots, DESTRUCTION and death across America? I hope and pray not.
Frankly, I hope and pray to Almighty God Prof Norpoth is right again.
The democrats blame everything on Donald Trump. He did not cause the pandemic. He did not cause businesses to close. He has been innocent of everything the democrats have tried to pin on him. The American people are smarter than that. I am more than tired of the media. Biden is going down. Trump 2020.
Vote for the dummy aka Biden, Maybe you have already. Good luck and happy tax increases to you!
Wow!!
Let’s hope. Who in their right mind would support Biden when he’s surrounding himself with self-proclaimed communists like Bernie Sanders and AOC and adopting their Venezuela-inspired ideas? Democrats are also threatening to abolish the electoral college and to pack the courts with activists… basically transform America into something unrecognizable from America. Biden himself hasn’t ruled out packing the courts or ending the filibusters or abolishing the electoral college. And if you think Biden won’t raise taxes on middle class Americans, think again. Don’t take this election for granted. Biden could win if we don’t get out to vote and get as many others to vote for Trump.
Can we please stop with this ridiculous idea that prof. Norpoth was right in 2016 ? He predicted that Trump would win, but he did not, he was elected, but he lost the popular vote. Since the professor’s model is a *national* model, nowhere are there provisions for the electoral college, the only measure that counts is the popular vote, therefore he was wrong. Just like he was wrong in 2000.
I must congratulate the professor on his remarkable ability to successfully market this legend.
Sounds crazy but because of his positivity towards getting things done despite the constant uphill battle I believe President Trump will take a second term. All the negativity is based on hate and people with no discipline much less moving forward. Many people simply don’t have the ability to see what is going on. Many do. That is why I see a second win.
Honestly, this makes a lot of sense. The majority of voters already have their minds made up by the primaries. Despite news cycles, debates, etc – the majority of voters already have their minds made up.
The other take way, is that this model was wrong twice noting, “two extremely close and contested votes marred by allegations of voting inaccuracies” – with mail in voting being at an all time high, that def sounds like it could be a possibility with his election too though.
Wishing and debating whether the Model is correct or not, and devolving this into a (largely) hate Trump discussion, seems pointless. Is anyone commenting on the accuracy of the Model qualified to do so? After Nov 3 (likely to be followed by legal arguments of fraud), let’s see if the Model was right or not.
I’m with you. I would like more details on the two times the model failed, and whether the unusual circumstances of this year’s election (covid restrictions and massive mail-voting) will cause the model to fail this year.
What a bunch of idiots! So many of those posting here don’t seem to have read anything Norpoth said. It’s the primary vote; nothing else is relevant. Not Covid, not the Democrats’ neo-brownshirts, not debate performances. Nothing.
According to Norpoth’s model, Trump is almost certain to win. If that upsets you, deal with it. You lefties have safe spaces and crayons, don’t you? Start scribbling, fergawdsake!
His methodology is impeccable. Trump, who had the nomination LOCKED up, still got more votes than Biden in the primaries in several key states. For example, Biden got 918,000 votes in PA, whereas Trump got 940,000 in a meaningless primary (to him, anyway). Also, Trump’s rallies have 35K + people, and Biden gets 10 people in white circles.
Model or not if this man is using math and no bias I trust his opinions. It’s scientific fact and those never fail . If it turns out different it’s just a fluke. Personally I don’t think trump will stay in the race. I predict he will bow out at 12 noon on Election Day. The next four years are going to be bad and he’s not going to stick around and be the escape goat. When the dust settles the truth will come out and the people in the wrong will be dealt with accordingly. I’d be watching the senate and congress that’s where the trouble lies. A president is a figure head the issues of the day are decided by the senate and the congress they are to blame for the American woes
I’m curious why the model failed in the Kennedy/Nixon election and the Bush/Gore election. Then, I want to know whether the unique circumstances of this year’s election (covid restrictions and massive mail-in ballots) will cause the model to fail this year.
I disagree, he has failed and will fail
The Trumps will be found guilty of many crimes
First order on the environment, approving of direct discharge to factories into rivers, streams and brooks…..gutting clean water and air acts….etc etc
Professor Norpoth, I pray that your prediction is correct again!!!!!
Go Trump! Save Mt. Rushmore, Dave our cities, end the nightmare of democratic tyranny.
I am one of many supporters who believe Trump will win & so delighted to read this prediction! Thank you. We are the massive “Silent Majority” who appreciates what this President has done for America. He is no smooth talking, devious politician – we “see” he loves the people & the Country. No President has ever been this unjustly vilified by media & elites. An ugly Washington snake pit. No President has been as wholeheartedly transparent or hardworking. He cares about us.
We, the people, know it in our hearts.
Thank you so much! I totally agree.
The media is making it extremely difficult to continue to stand against Biden, but I can’t imagine him or Harris as President!!!
Yes, I agree, and have voted already.
As a Canadian, looking at US politics as objectively as I can: I think you should 100% anticipate a Trump win.
I don’t think some of you realize just how dreadful some of your “news” comes across. CNN with Cuomo, Lemon, Cooper, etc. is essentially just a bunch of liberal opinion pieces strung together. It’s as if there isn’t a single thing the president can do right; just non-stop criticism and hatred for him.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, Trumps’s going to win big time, I believe, and I think he’s going to do so decisively.
The fact that Norpoth gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in a landslide suggests that Trump will indeed win and that this forecast won’t be wrong. The only two times Norpoth’s model failed is when his projections were closer and when one candidate wasn’t projected to win in a landslide at 90%.
I agree. If Norpoth would’ve given a 55% chance that Trump will win 280 electoral votes or something like that, then I could see Norpoth getting this election wrong. But that’s not the case here. He’s predicting with near certainty that Trump will win which wasn’t the case with the two predictions he got wrong in the past. Math doesn’t lie.
Many on the Right fear the Democrats will bring a Communist Government, Communism is Authoritarian Rule-Trump. I feel too many Republicans are supporting Biden for this reason and he’ll win in a close election…. close only because of all the voter suppression and cheating by Trump. I believe your wrong on this one!
I agree with Professor Helmut Norpoth that Donald Trump will win 2020 election as it is based mathematics and also careful scrutiny of past elections. Moreover, there is no clear agenda of Democratic candidate which will bring good fortune for the US citizens. Meanwhile, Trump proved that he had brought some significant changes in the direction of economy what brought benefits for the people. Of course, there was chaos in his administration. I also did not like the way Iranian General was murdered. I am also excited to vote for first time for which I delayed my tour abroad.
He is saying what you think are key indicators are not, actually. He has been right in almost every election including 2016, that’s impressive.
I, for one, am pleased to see intelligence coming from my beloved Stony Brook. 3years, Langmuir College, 1 at the Morrison Hotel. Class of 1981.
Does this man still think Trump will win since his last prediction?
Debbie! Read it again! Of course he does because because the model is based on what are now static variables aka the term used in the piece – unconditional final. It will not change between now and Nov 3!
Read up on why the electoral college is there. If we went by popular vote the big cities would rule everything. There is a reason for a senate and congress based on same principles. There is an easy solution to this. Split the electoral votes like some states do. So of a canidate gets 70% they get 3 votes and the other gets one if there is 4 votes up for grabs. This way everybody wins it’s called compromise something people now days know nothing about.
We don’t have to compromise. The electoral college works well. The only ones complaining about it are the puerile, narcissistic people who are sore losers and want to change the system just to appease themselves because they think they alone matter. The USA is a representative republic meaning land and distribution of population are factored in. If we went by your proposal, urban people would decide elections and rural America would be neglected. This would lead to division between rural America and urban America. Because of the electoral college system, both sides have an EQUAL voice which means politicians can’t focus on one and neglect the other.
Things you must consider and readjust to:
1) Many people who are voting in 2020 did not vote in 2016
2) Late breaking votes will go to Biden
3) Biden’s popularity is rising, Trump’s falling
4) Trump now has a record which is terrible.U.S. is responding.
5) People who are undecided is minimal.
6) Trump won by less 100,000 to get electoral victory 2016
7) You can see the motivation of Democrats to remove Trump
8) Tons of former Republican elite against Trump
9) Trump never reached 50% approval in RCP
Professor, your model is the best because its free of bias both political and personal, and is not influenced by the many racial, discriminatory and political rhetorics that is going on in the US today. Your model is flawless, and I know there are a lot of (small) people who have been and are being impacted by the positiveness of Trumps Presidency that will want to see him succeed, rather than the hate campaign that is being purported by the Dems…congratulation to you for standing behind your model despite the natural disasters and health issues that is impacting the globe..
I hope you are right about this one.
Norpoth’s track record is undeniable. The article did not address increased early voting which may result into a larger voter turnout for 2020. However, let us assume this does impact his formula of prediction.
uhhh good luck with your prediction? I guess someone has to predict a Trump win. It gives his supporters some hope when the magic 8-ball keeps saying “not likely.”
Any prediction which includes New York State in the Trump column is just plain silly and not credible.
You people fall for this con artist? Israel bahrain peace deal didn’t bring peace to the middle east. North korea is still making nuclear weapons. Record low unemployment? Real unemployment is at 20%. He created jobs that were low income, job inequality is at an all time high. He have tax cuts to the rich. Rebuilding the military? We have had the highest military budget in the world for a long time. Bush destroyed the economy and Obama turned it in the right direction. The rest of the world is laughing at us how we handled the covid outbreak. This being said I think Trump will win because americans are so stupid. They believe the con artist. Keep being idiots it’s what makes you who you are.
I don’t care if it’s a big win. Just win Donald Trump MAGA. Trump loves America and we love him. I pray every night and day for a victory. This election is about stopping socialism from ruining our country. I never thought it would happen. That we would have a president who would clean house and get rid of all the corruption in Washington. All the people in washington who were there for a free ride have jumped ship because if you don’t do your job your gone. It’s the only way for real change.
I pray he wins!
5 million new gun owners… I can’t imagine many of those new gun owners will vote for Biden
I can believe that. Biden should have done something in his 47 years in politics to earn our votes. He didnt. The recent New York Post report that reveals his and his son’s corruption in foreign nations is what he spent his time doing as a career politician. As an autoworker, I know what Biden did for us. He sent our jobs to China with outsourcing trade deals like NAFTA that he pushed for…all for the money in HIS pocket. I also lost a son in a war that he pushed for. I’ve never voted for a Republican before but intend to this November.
His model is dumb. There’s no way NY is going red, let alone Hawaii.
[…] Then, of course, those forecasters that made predictions correctly reflecting the actual essential outcome in 2016, i.e. a Republican president in the White House, predict that the same will be the case after this election as well.1 […]
[…] c.f. http://primarymodel.com/2020-1 ; https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-n… […]
[…] de cinco -el único desatino fue la derrota de Al Gore frente George Bush en el 2000-. En la página de la Universidad de Stony Brook, donde trabaja como profesor de ciencias políticas, Norpoth cuenta que comenzó a elaborar este […]
[…] results of five -the only blunder was Al Gore’s defeat against George Bush in 2000-. In the Stony Brook University page, where he works as a professor of political science, Norpoth says that he began to develop this […]
[…] único desatino fue la derrota de Al Gore frente George Bush en el 2000-. En la página de la Universidad de Stony Brook, donde trabaja como profesor de ciencias políticas, Norpoth cuenta que comenzó a elaborar este […]
[…] de cinco -el único desatino fue la derrota de Al Gore frente George Bush en el 2000-. En la página de la Universidad de Stony Brook, donde trabaja como profesor de ciencias políticas, Norpoth cuenta que comenzó a elaborar este […]
[…] results of five -the only blunder was Al Gore’s defeat against George Bush in 2000-. In the Stony Brook University page, where he works as a professor of political science, Norpoth says that he began to develop this […]